Nowflation Gauge holds at 2.03% YoY, down 0.004pp on the day, as Motor Fuel remains the dominant drag.

The Daily Brief for August 16, 2026, as the data stood that morning · Fuel-led disinflation. Nowflation Gauge 2.94% year over year on 2026-08-16 — −0.008pp on the day, +0.059pp on the week, +0.059pp on the month; seasonally adjusted pace 0.25% annualized over three months and 3.79% over one. Official CPI 3.4% (July 2026, released 2026-08-12); gap −0.46pp. About 43% of the basket is priced from live sources; the rest holds the latest BLS subindex as measured.

What moved

Gauge 2.94% YoY, −0.008pp on the day and +0.059pp on the week; seasonally adjusted pace 0.25% annualized over three months, 3.79% over one.
Shelter: Rent +0.16% on the day (+0.16% on the week, 1.68% YoY) — +1.23bps to the headline.
Gauge runs −0.46pp versus the July 2026 print of 3.4%; August 2026 CPI lands in 26 days — Nowflation Forecast 3.30% vs Street 3.4%, Cleveland Fed 3.36%.

The wire

The Nowflation Gauge sits at 2.03% YoY, -0.004pp DoD, +0.068pp WoW, -0.151pp MoM. Motor Fuel drives the daily move: -0.12% DoD, +1.32% WoW, +2.11% MoM, +30.13% YoY, contributing -0.37bps to today's print. Shelter: Owned holds at 2.89% YoY and Shelter: Rent at 0.97% YoY, both flat DoD; Used Vehicles stays deflationary at -2.67% YoY. The gauge trails the official July CPI (3.4% YoY, core 2.5%, down from 3.5%) by 1.37pp, signaling real-time prices running cooler than reported data ahead of the August release, Nowflation Forecast at 3.214%. Pump price at $4.065 points to a 2-week forward of $4.021, down 4.4 cents.

As written on 2026-08-16, under the gauge construction in force that day; the readings above reflect the current construction (v1.3, since September 2, 2026), so the levels differ.

The print ahead — August 2026 CPI, Friday, September 11, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET (in 26 days)

Forecaster	Headline CPI YoY call
Nowflation Forecast (pre-registered ensemble)	3.30%
Nowflation model (in-house)	3.21%
Street consensus	3.4%
Cleveland Fed nowcast	3.36%
Kalshi market-implied	3.38%
Prior print	3.4%

Our call sits −0.10pp versus the Street; the Gauge runs −0.46pp versus the July 2026 print of 3.4% that this release replaces. The forecast is a separate product from the Gauge — the Gauge measures today's prices; the forecast is the pre-registered call for what the BLS will print, graded after every release (August 2026 preview and grading).

Shelter, fuel, Truflation, jobs

Shelter: all-tenant rent index 1.68% YoY (+0.16% month over month), the reading the Gauge uses as measured; owned shelter 3.23% YoY; official rent 2.86% and owners' equivalent rent 3.23% (2026-07, BLS).
Fuel: pump price $4.065 (AAA daily, 2026-08-16), +5.3¢ on the week; RBOB implies $4.021 in two weeks (−4.4¢).
Truflation: 2.30% (2026-08-16); the Gauge is +0.64pp against it and Truflation is −1.10pp against the official print — a different construction, reconciled on the Nowflation vs Truflation page.
Jobs: August 2026 payrolls land September 4, 2026 (19 days): Nowflation model +77K vs Street +56K; printed +162K.

Method

The Nowflation Gauge is a measurement of today’s prices — live market sources for the components that have them (all-tenant rents measured from this month’s new leases, pump prices, used-vehicle auctions) and the latest BLS subindex, held as measured, for the rest. It is never a forecast. The print-day call is a separate product: the Nowflation Forecast is the pre-registered ensemble for the next CPI release (locked the evening before, graded after); the in-house model is shown alongside it. The wire paragraph is written by Claude from the day’s engine figures only (model alias in each record; a deterministic template when the API is unavailable). The “what moved” bullets are computed, not written. recomputed 8:40 AM & 6 PM ET · published 9 AM ET · 8:45 AM ET on print days. Methodology · every input, exposed · calendar feed, RSS and email.

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