Nowflation Realtime climbs to 2.87% YoY, up 0.03pp on the day, led by fuel's 0.035pp contribution.

The Daily Brief · Fuel-led uptick. Nowflation CPI Gauge 3.26% year over year on 2026-09-16 — +0.008pp on the day, +0.039pp on the week, +0.101pp on the month; seasonally adjusted pace 2.43% annualized over three months and 6.17% over one. Official CPI 3.4% (August 2026, released 2026-09-11); gap −0.14pp, verified against the released print. About 44% of the basket is priced from live sources; the rest holds the latest BLS subindex as measured.

What moved

• Gauge 3.26% YoY, +0.008pp on the day and +0.039pp on the week; seasonally adjusted pace 2.43% annualized over three months, 6.17% over one.
• Motor Fuel +0.90% on the day (+3.38% on the week, 36.56% YoY) — +2.61bps to the headline.
• Gauge runs −0.14pp versus the August 2026 print of 3.4%; September 2026 CPI lands in 28 days — Nowflation Forecast 3.49% vs Street 3.7%, Cleveland Fed 3.43%.

The wire

Nowflation Realtime reads 2.87% YoY, up 0.03pp on the day and 0.09pp on the week, with fuel adding 0.035pp as pump prices run 36.56% YoY. The Nowflation CPI Gauge stands at 3.26% YoY, up 0.008pp DoD, 0.039pp WoW and 0.101pp MoM, with Motor Fuel contributing 2.61bps to the daily move and Shelter: Rent adding 1.25bps, while Shelter: Owned held at 0bps. The Gauge sits -0.14pp below the official 2026-08 print of 3.4% YoY, implying a softer 2026-09 release. The Nowflation Forecast puts that print at 3.492%, below Street's 3.7% consensus. Fuel's two-week forward reads $4.297 versus $4.367 at the pump, down 7 cents.

The print ahead — September 2026 CPI, Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET (in 28 days)

Our call sits −0.21pp versus the Street; the Gauge runs −0.14pp versus the August 2026 print of 3.4% that this release replaces. The forecast is a separate product from the Gauge — the Gauge measures today's prices; the forecast is the pre-registered call for what the BLS will print, graded after every release (September 2026 preview and grading).

Shelter, fuel, Truflation, jobs

• Shelter: all-tenant rent index 2.02% YoY (+0.16% month over month), the reading the Gauge uses as measured; owned shelter 3.08% YoY; official rent 2.75% and owners' equivalent rent 3.08% (2026-08, BLS).
• Fuel: pump price $4.367 (AAA daily, 2026-09-16), +14.3¢ on the week; RBOB implies $4.297 in two weeks (−7.0¢).
• Truflation: 2.44% (2026-09-15); the Gauge is +0.82pp against it and Truflation is −0.96pp against the official print — a different construction, reconciled on the Nowflation vs Truflation page.
• Jobs: September 2026 payrolls land October 2, 2026 (16 days): Nowflation model +102K vs Street +120K.

Method

The Nowflation CPI Gauge is a measurement of today’s prices — live market sources for the components that have them (all-tenant rents measured from this month’s new leases, pump prices, used-vehicle auctions) and the latest BLS subindex, held as measured, for the rest. It is never a forecast. The print-day call is a separate product: the Nowflation Forecast is the pre-registered ensemble for the next CPI release (locked the evening before, graded after); the in-house model is shown alongside it. The wire paragraph is written by Claude from the day’s engine figures only (model alias in each record; a deterministic template when the API is unavailable). The “what moved” bullets are computed, not written. recomputed 8:40 AM & 6 PM ET · published 9 AM ET · 8:45 AM ET on print days. Methodology · every input, exposed · calendar feed, RSS and email.

Archive — one brief per day

Dashboard · Today's brief · CPI forecast · Scoreboard