Nowflation Realtime holds at 3.03% YoY, up 0.01pp on the day as fuel adds 0.006pp.

The Daily Brief · Fuel-led firming. Nowflation CPI Gauge 3.37% year over year on 2026-09-19 — +0.006pp on the day, +0.140pp on the week, +0.187pp on the month; seasonally adjusted pace 3.08% annualized over three months and 6.97% over one. Official CPI 3.4% (August 2026, released 2026-09-11); gap −0.03pp, verified against the released print. About 44% of the basket is priced from live sources; the rest holds the latest BLS subindex as measured.

What moved

• Gauge 3.37% YoY, +0.006pp on the day and +0.140pp on the week; seasonally adjusted pace 3.08% annualized over three months, 6.97% over one.
• Motor Fuel +0.16% on the day (+3.83% on the week, 41.00% YoY) — +0.45bps to the headline.
• Gauge runs −0.03pp versus the August 2026 print of 3.4%; September 2026 CPI lands in 25 days — Nowflation Forecast 3.53% vs Street 3.7%, Cleveland Fed 3.50%.

The wire

Nowflation Realtime stands at 3.03% YoY, up 0.01pp on the day and 0.21pp on the week; fuel contributed 0.006pp to the daily change, with pump prices running 41% YoY. The Nowflation CPI Gauge reads 3.37% YoY, up 0.006pp DoD, 0.14pp WoW and 0.187pp MoM, led by Motor Fuel (dod 0.16%, wow 3.83%, mom 9.04%, yoy 41%, contributing 0.45bps to the daily move). The Gauge sits 0.03pp below the official August print of 3.4% YoY, pointing to a softer September release. The Nowflation Forecast for September stands at 3.526%, below the Street consensus of 3.7%; the in-house model reads 3.342%. Fuel's two-week forward points to $4.554 from $4.475, a 7.9-cent rise.

The print ahead — September 2026 CPI, Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET (in 25 days)

Our call sits −0.17pp versus the Street; the Gauge runs −0.03pp versus the August 2026 print of 3.4% that this release replaces. The forecast is a separate product from the Gauge — the Gauge measures today's prices; the forecast is the pre-registered call for what the BLS will print, graded after every release (September 2026 preview and grading).

Shelter, fuel, Truflation, jobs

• Shelter: all-tenant rent index 2.02% YoY (+0.17% month over month), the reading the Gauge uses as measured; owned shelter 3.08% YoY; official rent 2.75% and owners' equivalent rent 3.08% (2026-08, BLS).
• Fuel: pump price $4.475 (AAA daily, 2026-09-19), +16.5¢ on the week; RBOB implies $4.554 in two weeks (+7.9¢).
• Truflation: 2.40% (2026-09-18); the Gauge is +0.97pp against it and Truflation is −1.00pp against the official print — a different construction, reconciled on the Nowflation vs Truflation page.
• Jobs: September 2026 payrolls land October 2, 2026 (13 days): Nowflation model +122K vs Street +120K.

Method

The Nowflation CPI Gauge is a measurement of today’s prices — live market sources for the components that have them (all-tenant rents measured from this month’s new leases, pump prices, used-vehicle auctions) and the latest BLS subindex, held as measured, for the rest. It is never a forecast. The print-day call is a separate product: the Nowflation Forecast is the pre-registered ensemble for the next CPI release (locked the evening before, graded after); the in-house model is shown alongside it. The wire paragraph is written by Claude from the day’s engine figures only (model alias in each record; a deterministic template when the API is unavailable). The “what moved” bullets are computed, not written. recomputed 7:55 AM & 6 PM ET · published 8:05 AM ET · 8:45 AM ET on print days. Methodology · every input, exposed · calendar feed, RSS and email.

Archive — one brief per day

Dashboard · Today's brief · CPI forecast · Scoreboard