Nowflation Gauge holds at 1.99% YoY, up 0.023pp on the day as motor fuel prices firm 0.62%.

The Daily Brief for August 12, 2026, as the data stood that morning · Fuel firming, core cooling. Nowflation Gauge 2.92% year over year on 2026-08-12 — +0.037pp on the day, −0.045pp on the week, −0.085pp on the month; seasonally adjusted pace 0.10% annualized over three months and 3.74% over one. Official CPI 3.4% (July 2026, released 2026-08-12); gap −0.48pp. About 43% of the basket is priced from live sources; the rest holds the latest BLS subindex as measured.

What moved

Gauge 2.92% YoY, +0.037pp on the day and −0.045pp on the week; seasonally adjusted pace 0.10% annualized over three months, 3.74% over one.
Shelter: Owned +0.26% on the day (+0.26% on the week, 3.23% YoY) — +6.89bps to the headline.
Gauge runs −0.48pp versus the July 2026 print of 3.4%; August 2026 CPI lands in 30 days — Nowflation Forecast 3.30% vs Street 3.4%, Cleveland Fed 3.36%.

The wire

The Nowflation Gauge prints 1.99% YoY, up 0.023pp on the day but down 0.019pp on the week and 0.074pp on the month, tracking 34.5% cumulative inflation since Jan-2018. Motor Fuel remains the largest single driver, up 0.62% DoD (+1.87bps contribution) despite a 1.08% weekly pullback, with YoY still at 29.21%. Shelter: Owned holds at 2.89% YoY, Shelter: Rent at 0.92%. The gauge sits 1.41pp below the July official CPI print of 3.4% (down from 3.5%; core 2.5%), consistent with real-time price capture running cooler than lagged official data. The August Nowflation Forecast points to 3.212% YoY, above the July print, as fuel forwards ease to $3.838 from $4.036 pump, a 19.8-cent two-week drop.

As written on 2026-08-12, under the gauge construction in force that day; the readings above reflect the current construction (v1.3, since September 2, 2026), so the levels differ.

The print ahead — August 2026 CPI, Friday, September 11, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET (in 30 days)

Forecaster	Headline CPI YoY call
Nowflation Forecast (pre-registered ensemble)	3.30%
Nowflation model (in-house)	3.21%
Street consensus	3.4%
Cleveland Fed nowcast	3.36%
Kalshi market-implied	3.40%
Prior print	3.4%

Our call sits −0.10pp versus the Street; the Gauge runs −0.48pp versus the July 2026 print of 3.4% that this release replaces. The forecast is a separate product from the Gauge — the Gauge measures today's prices; the forecast is the pre-registered call for what the BLS will print, graded after every release (August 2026 preview and grading).

Shelter, fuel, Truflation, jobs

Shelter: all-tenant rent index 1.68% YoY (+0.15% month over month), the reading the Gauge uses as measured; owned shelter 3.23% YoY; official rent 2.86% and owners' equivalent rent 3.23% (2026-07, BLS).
Fuel: pump price $4.036 (AAA daily, 2026-08-12), −4.4¢ on the week; RBOB implies $3.883 in two weeks (−15.3¢).
Truflation: 2.27% (2026-08-12); the Gauge is +0.65pp against it and Truflation is −1.13pp against the official print — a different construction, reconciled on the Nowflation vs Truflation page.
Jobs: August 2026 payrolls land September 4, 2026 (23 days): Nowflation model +100K vs Street +56K; printed +162K.

Method

The Nowflation Gauge is a measurement of today’s prices — live market sources for the components that have them (all-tenant rents measured from this month’s new leases, pump prices, used-vehicle auctions) and the latest BLS subindex, held as measured, for the rest. It is never a forecast. The print-day call is a separate product: the Nowflation Forecast is the pre-registered ensemble for the next CPI release (locked the evening before, graded after); the in-house model is shown alongside it. The wire paragraph is written by Claude from the day’s engine figures only (model alias in each record; a deterministic template when the API is unavailable). The “what moved” bullets are computed, not written. recomputed 8:40 AM & 6 PM ET · published 9 AM ET · 8:45 AM ET on print days. Methodology · every input, exposed · calendar feed, RSS and email.

Archive — one brief per day

Dashboard · Today's brief · CPI forecast · Scoreboard