Nowflation Realtime climbs to 3.03% YoY, up 0.03pp on the day, as fuel drives inflation with a 0.027pp contribution.

The Daily Brief · Fuel-led acceleration. Nowflation CPI Gauge 3.36% year over year on 2026-09-18 — +0.027pp on the day, +0.127pp on the week, +0.191pp on the month; seasonally adjusted pace 3.05% annualized over three months and 7.11% over one. Official CPI 3.4% (August 2026, released 2026-09-11); gap −0.04pp, verified against the released print. About 44% of the basket is priced from live sources; the rest holds the latest BLS subindex as measured.

What moved

• Gauge 3.36% YoY, +0.027pp on the day and +0.127pp on the week; seasonally adjusted pace 3.05% annualized over three months, 7.11% over one.
• Motor Fuel +0.68% on the day (+4.03% on the week, 40.78% YoY) — +1.96bps to the headline.
• Gauge runs −0.04pp versus the August 2026 print of 3.4%; September 2026 CPI lands in 26 days — Nowflation Forecast 3.52% vs Street 3.7%, Cleveland Fed 3.50%.

The wire

Nowflation Realtime reads 3.03% YoY, up 0.03pp on the day and 0.22pp on the week, led by fuel's 0.027pp contribution as pump prices push fuel inflation to 40.78% YoY. The Nowflation CPI Gauge stands at 3.36% YoY, rising 0.027pp DoD, 0.127pp WoW and 0.191pp MoM, cumulative 36.6% since January 2018. Motor Fuel remains the dominant driver, up 0.68% DoD, 4.03% WoW, 9.35% MoM, contributing 1.96bps, while Shelter: Rent and Shelter: Owned stay flat DoD. The Gauge sits 0.04pp below the official August print of 3.4% YoY, pointing to the September Nowflation Forecast of 3.523%, below Street's 3.7% consensus. Fuel's two-week forward at $4.547 versus $4.468 spot signals a 7.9-cent rise ahead.

The print ahead — September 2026 CPI, Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET (in 26 days)

Our call sits −0.18pp versus the Street; the Gauge runs −0.04pp versus the August 2026 print of 3.4% that this release replaces. The forecast is a separate product from the Gauge — the Gauge measures today's prices; the forecast is the pre-registered call for what the BLS will print, graded after every release (September 2026 preview and grading).

Shelter, fuel, Truflation, jobs

• Shelter: all-tenant rent index 2.02% YoY (+0.17% month over month), the reading the Gauge uses as measured; owned shelter 3.08% YoY; official rent 2.75% and owners' equivalent rent 3.08% (2026-08, BLS).
• Fuel: pump price $4.468 (AAA daily, 2026-09-18), +17.3¢ on the week; RBOB implies $4.547 in two weeks (+7.9¢).
• Truflation: 2.36% (2026-09-17); the Gauge is +1.01pp against it and Truflation is −1.04pp against the official print — a different construction, reconciled on the Nowflation vs Truflation page.
• Jobs: September 2026 payrolls land October 2, 2026 (14 days): Nowflation model +122K vs Street +120K.

Method

The Nowflation CPI Gauge is a measurement of today’s prices — live market sources for the components that have them (all-tenant rents measured from this month’s new leases, pump prices, used-vehicle auctions) and the latest BLS subindex, held as measured, for the rest. It is never a forecast. The print-day call is a separate product: the Nowflation Forecast is the pre-registered ensemble for the next CPI release (locked the evening before, graded after); the in-house model is shown alongside it. The wire paragraph is written by Claude from the day’s engine figures only (model alias in each record; a deterministic template when the API is unavailable). The “what moved” bullets are computed, not written. recomputed 7:55 AM & 6 PM ET · published 8:05 AM ET · 8:45 AM ET on print days. Methodology · every input, exposed · calendar feed, RSS and email.

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