Nowflation Gauge holds at 3.25% YoY, up 0.01pp on the day as Motor Fuel surges 6.47% on the month.

The Daily Brief · Fuel-driven acceleration. Nowflation CPI Gauge 3.25% year over year on 2026-09-15 — +0.010pp on the day, +0.095pp on the week, +0.091pp on the month; seasonally adjusted pace 2.30% annualized over three months and 5.74% over one. Official CPI 3.4% (August 2026, released 2026-09-11); gap −0.15pp, verified against the released print. About 44% of the basket is priced from live sources; the rest holds the latest BLS subindex as measured.

What moved

• Gauge 3.25% YoY, +0.010pp on the day and +0.095pp on the week; seasonally adjusted pace 2.30% annualized over three months, 5.74% over one.
• Motor Fuel +0.28% on the day (+4.26% on the week, 35.34% YoY) — +0.80bps to the headline.
• Gauge runs −0.15pp versus the August 2026 print of 3.4%; September 2026 CPI lands in 29 days — Nowflation Forecast 3.49% vs Street 3.7%, Cleveland Fed 3.43%.

The wire

The Nowflation Gauge reads 3.25% YoY, up 0.01pp on the day, 0.095pp on the week, and 0.091pp on the month. Motor Fuel leads, rising 0.28% daily, 4.26% weekly, 6.47% monthly, and 35.34% YoY. Shelter: Owned adds 0.19% weekly and monthly, tracking 3.08% YoY, while Shelter: Rent sits flat at 2.09% YoY. The gauge trails the official 2026-08 CPI print of 3.4% YoY by 0.15pp. For the 2026-09 release, the Nowflation Forecast stands at 3.49%, below Street consensus of 3.7%; the in-house model reads 3.302%. Pump prices at $4.328 versus a 2-week forward of $4.258, down 7 cents, point to near-term easing in Motor Fuel's contribution.

The print ahead — September 2026 CPI, Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET (in 29 days)

Our call sits −0.21pp versus the Street; the Gauge runs −0.15pp versus the August 2026 print of 3.4% that this release replaces. The forecast is a separate product from the Gauge — the Gauge measures today's prices; the forecast is the pre-registered call for what the BLS will print, graded after every release (September 2026 preview and grading).

Shelter, fuel, Truflation, jobs

• Shelter: all-tenant rent index 2.09% YoY (+0.17% month over month), the reading the Gauge uses as measured; owned shelter 3.08% YoY; official rent 2.75% and owners' equivalent rent 3.08% (2026-08, BLS).
• Fuel: pump price $4.328 (AAA daily, 2026-09-15), +17.7¢ on the week; RBOB implies $4.258 in two weeks (−7.0¢).
• Truflation: 2.48% (2026-09-14); the Gauge is +0.77pp against it and Truflation is −0.92pp against the official print — a different construction, reconciled on the Nowflation vs Truflation page.
• Jobs: September 2026 payrolls land October 2, 2026 (17 days): Nowflation model +102K vs Street +120K.

Method

The Nowflation CPI Gauge is a measurement of today’s prices — live market sources for the components that have them (all-tenant rents measured from this month’s new leases, pump prices, used-vehicle auctions) and the latest BLS subindex, held as measured, for the rest. It is never a forecast. The print-day call is a separate product: the Nowflation Forecast is the pre-registered ensemble for the next CPI release (locked the evening before, graded after); the in-house model is shown alongside it. The wire paragraph is written by Claude from the day’s engine figures only (model alias in each record; a deterministic template when the API is unavailable). The “what moved” bullets are computed, not written. recomputed 8:40 AM & 6 PM ET · published 9 AM ET · 8:45 AM ET on print days. Methodology · every input, exposed · calendar feed, RSS and email.

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