Nowflation Gauge holds at 2.94% YoY, dipping 0.025pp on the day as falling used-vehicle prices offset a Motor Fuel uptick.

The Daily Brief · Autos drag, fuel firms. Nowflation Gauge 2.94% year over year on 2026-09-07 — −0.025pp on the day, +0.008pp on the week, +0.044pp on the month; seasonally adjusted pace 1.42% annualized over three months and 4.19% over one. Official CPI 3.4% (July 2026, released 2026-08-12); gap −0.46pp, verified against the released print. About 43% of the basket is priced from live sources; the rest holds the latest BLS subindex as measured.

What moved

Gauge 2.94% YoY, −0.025pp on the day and +0.008pp on the week; seasonally adjusted pace 1.42% annualized over three months, 4.19% over one.
Used Vehicles −1.24% on the day (−1.24% on the week, 0.00% YoY) — −2.60bps to the headline.
Gauge runs −0.46pp versus the July 2026 print of 3.4%; August 2026 CPI lands in 4 days — Nowflation Forecast 3.36% vs Street 3.4%, Cleveland Fed 3.38%.

The wire

The Nowflation Gauge stands at 2.94% YoY as of 2026-09-07, down 0.025pp on the day but up 0.008pp on the week and 0.044pp on the month; cumulative inflation since January 2018 reaches 36.8%. Used Vehicles fell 1.24% d/d, w/w and m/m, subtracting 2.6bps from the index and flattening its YoY to 0%. Motor Fuel rose 0.07% d/d, 1.72% w/w and 3.18% m/m, lifting YoY to 30.39% and adding 0.22bps. Shelter: Owned firmed 0.26% m/m to 3.23% YoY. The gauge runs 0.46pp below the official July CPI print of 3.4% (core 2.5%), pointing to an August reading near the Nowflation model of 3.285%, below the 3.4% Street consensus. Pump prices at $4.15 point toward $4.094 in two weeks, a 5.6-cent decline.

The print ahead — August 2026 CPI, Friday, September 11, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET (in 4 days)

Forecaster	Headline CPI YoY call
Nowflation Forecast (pre-registered ensemble)	3.36%
Nowflation model (in-house)	3.29%
Street consensus	3.4%
Cleveland Fed nowcast	3.38%
Kalshi market-implied	3.38%
Prior print	3.4%

Our call sits −0.04pp versus the Street; the Gauge runs −0.46pp versus the July 2026 print of 3.4% that this release replaces. The forecast is a separate product from the Gauge — the Gauge measures today's prices; the forecast is the pre-registered call for what the BLS will print, graded after every release (August 2026 preview and grading).

Shelter, fuel, Truflation, jobs

Shelter: all-tenant rent index 1.68% YoY (+0.16% month over month), the reading the Gauge uses as measured; owned shelter 3.23% YoY; official rent 2.86% and owners' equivalent rent 3.23% (2026-07, BLS).
Fuel: pump price $4.150 (AAA daily, 2026-09-07), +7.0¢ on the week; RBOB implies $4.094 in two weeks (−5.6¢).
Truflation: 2.28% (2026-09-06); the Gauge is +0.65pp against it and Truflation is −1.12pp against the official print — a different construction, reconciled on the Nowflation vs Truflation page.
Jobs: September 2026 payrolls land October 2, 2026 (25 days): Nowflation model +91K vs Street +120K.

Method

The Nowflation Gauge is a measurement of today’s prices — live market sources for the components that have them (all-tenant rents measured from this month’s new leases, pump prices, used-vehicle auctions) and the latest BLS subindex, held as measured, for the rest. It is never a forecast. The print-day call is a separate product: the Nowflation Forecast is the pre-registered ensemble for the next CPI release (locked the evening before, graded after); the in-house model is shown alongside it. The wire paragraph is written by Claude from the day’s engine figures only (model alias in each record; a deterministic template when the API is unavailable). The “what moved” bullets are computed, not written. recomputed 8:40 AM & 6 PM ET · published 9 AM ET · 8:45 AM ET on print days. Methodology · every input, exposed · calendar feed, RSS and email.

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