Nowflation Gauge holds at 2.04% YoY, motor fuel down 0.27% on the day, cost-of-living tracking at 1.86%.

The Daily Brief for July 28, 2026, as the data stood that morning · Energy-led disinflation gap. Nowflation Gauge 3.00% year over year on 2026-07-28 — −0.010pp on the day, +0.081pp on the week, +0.023pp on the month; seasonally adjusted pace 1.55% annualized over three months and 2.29% over one. Official CPI 3.5% (June 2026, released 2026-07-14); gap −0.50pp. About 43% of the basket is priced from live sources; the rest holds the latest BLS subindex as measured.

What moved

The wire

The Nowflation Gauge printed 2.04% YoY on July 28, down 0.012pp on the day but up 0.07pp on the week and 0.013pp softer on the month; cost-of-living tracks 1.86%. Motor Fuel remains the swing factor, falling 0.27% on the day even as it stays up 1.99% on the week, 4.54% on the month and 31.01% YoY, contributing -0.8bps to the daily move. Shelter Rent held at 0.96% YoY (+0.18% MoM) and Shelter Owned at 2.97% YoY, both flat day-over-day. The gauge sits 1.46pp below the official June CPI print of 3.5% YoY (prior 4.2%, core 2.6%). Nowflation Forecast for the July release stands at 3.449%, still above the gauge's real-time read. Fuel forwards point to pump prices at $4.301 in two weeks, up 20.2 cents from today's $4.099.

As written on 2026-07-28, under the gauge construction in force that day; the readings above reflect the current construction (v1.3, since September 2, 2026), so the levels differ.

The print ahead — July 2026 CPI, Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET (printed 3.4%)

ForecasterHeadline CPI YoY call
Nowflation Forecast (pre-registered ensemble)3.40%
Nowflation model (in-house)3.45%
Street consensus3.4%
Cleveland Fed nowcast3.37%
Kalshi market-implied3.39%
Prior print3.5%

Our call sits +0.00pp versus the Street; the Gauge runs −0.50pp versus the June 2026 print of 3.5% that this release replaces. Graded: the call missed by +0.00pp. The forecast is a separate product from the Gauge — the Gauge measures today's prices; the forecast is the pre-registered call for what the BLS will print, graded after every release (July 2026 preview and grading).

Shelter, fuel, Truflation, jobs

Method

The Nowflation Gauge is a measurement of today’s prices — live market sources for the components that have them (all-tenant rents measured from this month’s new leases, pump prices, used-vehicle auctions) and the latest BLS subindex, held as measured, for the rest. It is never a forecast. The print-day call is a separate product: the Nowflation Forecast is the pre-registered ensemble for the next CPI release (locked the evening before, graded after); the in-house model is shown alongside it. The wire paragraph is written by Claude from the day’s engine figures only (model alias in each record; a deterministic template when the API is unavailable). The “what moved” bullets are computed, not written. recomputed 8:40 AM & 6 PM ET · published 9 AM ET · 8:45 AM ET on print days. Methodology · every input, exposed · calendar feed, RSS and email.

Archive — one brief per day

Dashboard · Today's brief · CPI forecast · Scoreboard