Nowflation inflation gauge at 2.05% YoY (+0.006pp DoD)

The Daily Brief for July 25, 2026, as the data stood that morning · Energy pressure. Nowflation Gauge 3.01% year over year on 2026-07-25 — +0.005pp on the day, +0.117pp on the week, +0.034pp on the month; seasonally adjusted pace 1.88% annualized over three months and 2.41% over one. Official CPI 3.5% (June 2026, released 2026-07-14); gap −0.49pp. About 43% of the basket is priced from live sources; the rest holds the latest BLS subindex as measured.

What moved

Gauge 3.01% YoY, +0.005pp on the day and +0.117pp on the week; seasonally adjusted pace 1.88% annualized over three months, 2.41% over one.
Motor Fuel +0.15% on the day (+2.98% on the week, 31.48% YoY) — +0.44bps to the headline.
Gauge runs −0.49pp versus the June 2026 print of 3.5%; July 2026 CPI lands in 18 days — Nowflation Forecast 3.40% vs Street 3.4%, Cleveland Fed 3.37%.

The wire

The daily index reads 2.05% YoY, +0.116pp on the week. Largest daily driver: Motor Fuel (+0.15% DoD, 0.44bps to headline). Gauge runs -1.45pp versus the last official print (3.5%). Pump price $4.111, RBOB implies 30.5c over two weeks.

As written on 2026-07-25, under the gauge construction in force that day; the readings above reflect the current construction (v1.3, since September 2, 2026), so the levels differ.

The print ahead — July 2026 CPI, Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET (printed 3.4%)

Forecaster	Headline CPI YoY call
Nowflation Forecast (pre-registered ensemble)	3.40%
Nowflation model (in-house)	3.44%
Street consensus	3.4%
Cleveland Fed nowcast	3.37%
Kalshi market-implied	3.39%
Prior print	3.5%

Our call sits −0.00pp versus the Street; the Gauge runs −0.49pp versus the June 2026 print of 3.5% that this release replaces. Graded: the call missed by −0.00pp. The forecast is a separate product from the Gauge — the Gauge measures today's prices; the forecast is the pre-registered call for what the BLS will print, graded after every release (July 2026 preview and grading).

Shelter, fuel, Truflation, jobs

Shelter: all-tenant rent index 1.68% YoY (+0.15% month over month), the reading the Gauge uses as measured; owned shelter 3.25% YoY; official rent 2.86% and owners' equivalent rent 3.23% (2026-07, BLS).
Fuel: pump price $4.111 (AAA daily, 2026-07-25), +11.9¢ on the week; RBOB implies $4.416 in two weeks (+30.5¢).
Truflation: 2.09% (2026-07-25); the Gauge is +0.92pp against it and Truflation is −1.41pp against the official print — a different construction, reconciled on the Nowflation vs Truflation page.
Jobs: July 2026 payrolls land August 7, 2026 (13 days): Nowflation model +192K vs Street +80K; printed −23K.

Method

The Nowflation Gauge is a measurement of today’s prices — live market sources for the components that have them (all-tenant rents measured from this month’s new leases, pump prices, used-vehicle auctions) and the latest BLS subindex, held as measured, for the rest. It is never a forecast. The print-day call is a separate product: the Nowflation Forecast is the pre-registered ensemble for the next CPI release (locked the evening before, graded after); the in-house model is shown alongside it. The wire paragraph is written by Claude from the day’s engine figures only (model alias in each record; a deterministic template when the API is unavailable). The “what moved” bullets are computed, not written. recomputed 8:40 AM & 6 PM ET · published 9 AM ET · 8:45 AM ET on print days. Methodology · every input, exposed · calendar feed, RSS and email.

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