Nowflation Realtime stands at 3.15% YoY on 2026-10-01 as fuel contributes +0.031pp to the day's +0.03pp rise.

The Daily Brief for October 1, 2026, as the data stood that morning · Fuel-driven firmness. Nowflation CPI Gauge 3.54% year over year on 2026-10-01 — +0.032pp on the day, −0.013pp on the week, +0.243pp on the month; seasonally adjusted pace 4.35% annualized over three months and 6.91% over one. Changes are like for like on method v1.5; the published readings moved +0.167pp on the week, +0.383pp on the month across the September 28, 2026 switch from v1.4. Official CPI 3.4% (August 2026, released 2026-09-11); gap +0.14pp. About 40% of the basket is priced from live sources; the rest holds the latest BLS subindex as measured.

What moved

• Gauge 3.54% YoY, +0.032pp on the day and −0.013pp on the week, like for like on method v1.5 (the published readings moved +0.167pp on the week, across the September 28, 2026 switch from v1.4); seasonally adjusted pace 4.35% annualized over three months, 6.91% over one.
• Motor Fuel −0.47% on the day (−1.54% on the week, 41.27% YoY) — −1.37bps to the Gauge.
• Gauge runs +0.14pp versus the August 2026 print of 3.4%; September 2026 CPI lands in 13 days — Nowflation Forecast 3.60% vs Street 3.7%, Cleveland Fed 3.60%.

The wire

Nowflation Realtime stands at 3.15% YoY, up 0.03pp day-over-day but down 0.02pp week-over-week. Fuel remains the dominant mover, contributing +0.031pp to the daily change, with the component's own YoY rate at 41.27%. The Nowflation CPI Gauge reads 3.54% YoY, up 0.032pp DoD, down 0.018pp WoW, and up 0.238pp MoM, running 0.14pp above the official 2026-08 CPI print of 3.4% YoY. Within the Gauge's drivers, Motor Fuel shows a 7.77% MoM and 41.27% YoY swing despite a -0.47% daily dip. For the 2026-09 release, the Nowflation Forecast sits at 3.597%, below the Street consensus of 3.7%. Forward fuel pricing points higher, with pump prices at $4.413 projected to reach $4.509 in two weeks, a 9.6-cent increase.

Corrected October 5, 2026: the headline said the reading “holds” although it rose 0.03 points on the day; leftover code characters at the end of the paragraph were removed. The rest of the paragraph is as published.

The print ahead — September 2026 CPI, Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET (printed 3.7%)

Our call sits −0.10pp versus the Street; the Gauge runs +0.14pp versus the August 2026 print of 3.4% that this release replaces. Graded: the call locked in its receipt (October 13, 2026 at 6:30 PM ET) was 3.56%, a miss of −0.14pp; the call as it stood this day was 3.60%. The forecast is a separate product from the Gauge — the Gauge measures today's prices; the forecast is our call for what the BLS will print, locked into a receipt the evening before the release and graded after it (September 2026 preview and grading).

Shelter, fuel, Truflation, jobs

• Shelter: all-tenant rent index 2.02% YoY (+0.17% month over month), the reading the Gauge uses as measured; it prices owners' equivalent rent on the same index (2.02% YoY); official rent 2.75% and owners' equivalent rent 3.08% (2026-08, BLS).
• Fuel: pump price $4.413 (AAA daily, 2026-10-01), −6.9¢ on the week; New York Harbor spot gasoline (EIA) through 2026-10-01 implies $4.400 in two weeks (−1.3¢).
• Truflation: 2.74% (2026-10-01); the Gauge is +0.80pp against it and Truflation is −0.66pp against the official print — a different construction, reconciled on the Nowflation vs Truflation page.
• Jobs: September 2026 payrolls land October 2, 2026 (1 day): Nowflation model +124K vs Street +90K (FMP economic calendar estimate, as of 2026-10-01); printed +29K.

Method

The Nowflation CPI Gauge is a measurement of today’s prices — live market sources for the components that have them (all-tenant rents measured from this month’s new leases, pump prices, used-vehicle auctions) and the latest BLS subindex, held as measured, for the rest. It is never a forecast. The print-day call is a separate product: the Nowflation Forecast is the ensemble call for the next CPI release, the current call until it is locked into a receipt the evening before the release, then graded after it; the in-house model is shown alongside it. The wire headline and paragraph are written by Claude from the day’s engine figures only (model alias in each record). Before a paragraph is stored, every number in it is checked against those figures (since September 15, 2026) and its wording against the numbers (since October 2, 2026); a deterministic template replaces it when the API is unavailable or a check fails. Archived paragraphs are shown as written, including those stored before the current checks. The “what moved” bullets are computed, not written. recomputed 7:55 AM & 6 PM ET · published 8:05 AM ET · 8:45 AM ET on print days. Methodology · every input, exposed · calendar feed, RSS and email.

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