Nowflation Realtime holds at 3.16% year-on-year as of September 28, with fuel's -0.003pp contribution the main drag.

The Daily Brief for September 28, 2026, as the data stood that morning · Fuel drag, gauge climbing. Nowflation CPI Gauge 3.55% year over year on 2026-09-28 — +0.002pp on the day, −0.002pp on the week, +0.270pp on the month; seasonally adjusted pace 3.89% annualized over three months and 7.96% over one. Changes are like for like on method v1.5; the published readings moved +0.181pp on the day, +0.178pp on the week, +0.407pp on the month across the September 28, 2026 switch from v1.4. Official CPI 3.4% (August 2026, released 2026-09-11); gap +0.15pp. About 44% of the basket is priced from live sources; the rest holds the latest BLS subindex as measured.

What moved

• Gauge 3.55% YoY, +0.002pp on the day and −0.002pp on the week, like for like on method v1.5 (the published readings moved +0.181pp on the day and +0.178pp on the week, across the September 28, 2026 switch from v1.4); seasonally adjusted pace 3.89% annualized over three months, 7.96% over one.
• Motor Fuel −0.07% on the day (−0.04% on the week, 40.81% YoY) — −0.19bps to the Gauge.
• Gauge runs +0.15pp versus the August 2026 print of 3.4%; September 2026 CPI lands in 16 days — Nowflation Forecast 3.58% vs Street 3.7%, Cleveland Fed 3.57%.

The wire

Nowflation Realtime is unchanged on the day (0.000pp) and down 0.01pp on the week, at 3.16% year-on-year, with fuel the lone listed mover at -0.003pp despite fuel prices up 40.81% year-on-year. The Nowflation CPI Gauge stands higher, at 3.55% year-on-year, up 0.181pp day-on-day, 0.178pp week-on-week and 0.407pp month-on-month, running 0.15pp above the official August 2026 print of 3.4% year-on-year. Motor Fuel remains the standout driver within the Gauge, up 9.68% month-on-month and 40.81% year-on-year. For the September 2026 release, the Nowflation Forecast sits at 3.584%, below Street consensus of 3.7%. Pump prices at $4.476 versus a two-week forward of $4.661 imply an 18.5-cent rise ahead.

Corrected October 5, 2026: a stray closing quotation mark was removed. The rest of the paragraph is as published.

The print ahead — September 2026 CPI, Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET (printed 3.7%)

Our call sits −0.12pp versus the Street; the Gauge runs +0.15pp versus the August 2026 print of 3.4% that this release replaces. Graded: the call locked in its receipt (October 13, 2026 at 6:30 PM ET) was 3.56%, a miss of −0.14pp; the call as it stood this day was 3.58%. The forecast is a separate product from the Gauge — the Gauge measures today's prices; the forecast is our call for what the BLS will print, locked into a receipt the evening before the release and graded after it (September 2026 preview and grading).

Shelter, fuel, Truflation, jobs

• Shelter: all-tenant rent index 2.02% YoY (+0.17% month over month), the reading the Gauge uses as measured; it prices owners' equivalent rent on the same index (2.02% YoY); official rent 2.75% and owners' equivalent rent 3.08% (2026-08, BLS).
• Fuel: pump price $4.476 (AAA daily, 2026-09-28), −0.2¢ on the week; New York Harbor spot gasoline (EIA) through 2026-09-28 implies $4.610 in two weeks (+13.4¢).
• Truflation: 2.54% (2026-09-28); the Gauge is +1.02pp against it and Truflation is −0.86pp against the official print — a different construction, reconciled on the Nowflation vs Truflation page.
• Jobs: September 2026 payrolls land October 2, 2026 (4 days): Nowflation model +124K vs Street +84K (FMP economic calendar estimate, as of 2026-09-28); printed +29K.

Method

The Nowflation CPI Gauge is a measurement of today’s prices — live market sources for the components that have them (all-tenant rents measured from this month’s new leases, pump prices, used-vehicle auctions) and the latest BLS subindex, held as measured, for the rest. It is never a forecast. The print-day call is a separate product: the Nowflation Forecast is the ensemble call for the next CPI release, the current call until it is locked into a receipt the evening before the release, then graded after it; the in-house model is shown alongside it. The wire headline and paragraph are written by Claude from the day’s engine figures only (model alias in each record). Before a paragraph is stored, every number in it is checked against those figures (since September 15, 2026) and its wording against the numbers (since October 2, 2026); a deterministic template replaces it when the API is unavailable or a check fails. Archived paragraphs are shown as written, including those stored before the current checks. The “what moved” bullets are computed, not written. recomputed 7:55 AM & 6 PM ET · published 8:05 AM ET · 8:45 AM ET on print days. Methodology · every input, exposed · calendar feed, RSS and email.

Archive — one brief per day

Dashboard · Today's brief · CPI forecast · Scoreboard