Nowflation Gauge holds at 2.04% YoY, up 0.023pp on the day as motor fuel jumps 4.15% on the week.

The Daily Brief for July 21, 2026, as the data stood that morning · Fuel-driven gauge uptick. Nowflation Gauge 2.92% year over year on 2026-07-21 — +0.015pp on the day, −0.041pp on the week, −0.254pp on the month; seasonally adjusted pace 1.56% annualized over three months and 0.04% over one. Official CPI 3.5% (June 2026, released 2026-07-14); gap −0.58pp. About 43% of the basket is priced from live sources; the rest holds the latest BLS subindex as measured.

What moved

Gauge 2.92% YoY, +0.015pp on the day and −0.041pp on the week; seasonally adjusted pace 1.56% annualized over three months, 0.04% over one.
Motor Fuel +0.40% on the day (+4.15% on the week, 28.17% YoY) — +1.20bps to the headline.
Gauge runs −0.58pp versus the June 2026 print of 3.5%; July 2026 CPI lands in 22 days — Nowflation Forecast 3.36% vs Street 3.4%, Cleveland Fed 3.32%.

The wire

The Nowflation Gauge stands at 2.04% YoY, up 0.023pp day-on-day and 0.153pp week-on-week, though down 0.277pp on the month; cost-of-living inflation reads 1.78% YoY. Motor Fuel leads gains, up 0.4% DoD, 4.15% WoW, though down 1% MoM and still up 28.54% YoY, contributing 1.2bps to the daily move; pump prices sit at $4.019, with the two-week forward at $4.31, a 29.1-cent premium. Shelter: Rent adds 0.18% MoM, up 0.96% YoY. The gauge trails official June CPI's 3.5% YoY (down from 4.2%) by 1.46pp, a gap that points to a softer July print than the Street's 3.412% consensus Nowflation Forecast.

As written on 2026-07-21, under the gauge construction in force that day; the readings above reflect the current construction (v1.3, since September 2, 2026), so the levels differ.

The print ahead — July 2026 CPI, Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET (printed 3.4%)

Forecaster	Headline CPI YoY call
Nowflation Forecast (pre-registered ensemble)	3.36%
Nowflation model (in-house)	3.41%
Street consensus	3.4%
Cleveland Fed nowcast	3.32%
Kalshi market-implied	3.41%
Prior print	3.5%

Our call sits −0.04pp versus the Street; the Gauge runs −0.58pp versus the June 2026 print of 3.5% that this release replaces. Graded: the call missed by −0.04pp. The forecast is a separate product from the Gauge — the Gauge measures today's prices; the forecast is the pre-registered call for what the BLS will print, graded after every release (July 2026 preview and grading).

Shelter, fuel, Truflation, jobs

Shelter: all-tenant rent index 1.68% YoY (+0.15% month over month), the reading the Gauge uses as measured; owned shelter 3.25% YoY; official rent 2.86% and owners' equivalent rent 3.23% (2026-07, BLS).
Fuel: pump price $4.019 (AAA daily, 2026-07-21), +16.0¢ on the week; RBOB implies $4.343 in two weeks (+32.4¢).
Truflation: 2.05% (2026-07-21); the Gauge is +0.87pp against it and Truflation is −1.45pp against the official print — a different construction, reconciled on the Nowflation vs Truflation page.
Jobs: July 2026 payrolls land August 7, 2026 (17 days): Nowflation model +160K vs Street +80K; printed −23K.

Method

The Nowflation Gauge is a measurement of today’s prices — live market sources for the components that have them (all-tenant rents measured from this month’s new leases, pump prices, used-vehicle auctions) and the latest BLS subindex, held as measured, for the rest. It is never a forecast. The print-day call is a separate product: the Nowflation Forecast is the pre-registered ensemble for the next CPI release (locked the evening before, graded after); the in-house model is shown alongside it. The wire paragraph is written by Claude from the day’s engine figures only (model alias in each record; a deterministic template when the API is unavailable). The “what moved” bullets are computed, not written. recomputed 8:40 AM & 6 PM ET · published 9 AM ET · 8:45 AM ET on print days. Methodology · every input, exposed · calendar feed, RSS and email.

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