Nowflation Gauge climbs to 3.25% YoY, up 0.033pp on the day, as Motor Fuel jumps 1.26% DoD.

The Daily Brief · Fuel-led firming. Nowflation Gauge 3.25% year over year on 2026-09-10 — +0.033pp on the day, +0.078pp on the week, +0.080pp on the month; seasonally adjusted pace 1.52% annualized over three months and 5.36% over one. Official CPI 3.4% (July 2026, released 2026-08-12); gap −0.15pp, verified against the released print. About 44% of the basket is priced from live sources; the rest holds the latest BLS subindex as measured.

What moved

Gauge 3.25% YoY, +0.033pp on the day and +0.078pp on the week; seasonally adjusted pace 1.52% annualized over three months, 5.36% over one.
Motor Fuel +1.25% on the day (+3.23% on the week, 33.75% YoY) — +3.63bps to the headline.
Gauge runs −0.15pp versus the July 2026 print of 3.4%; August 2026 CPI lands in 1 day — Nowflation Forecast 3.34% vs Street 3.4%, Cleveland Fed 3.38%.

The wire

The Nowflation Gauge printed 3.25% YoY on Sep 10, up 0.033pp DoD, 0.078pp WoW and 0.08pp MoM, with the index cumulatively up 36.2% since January 2018. Motor Fuel led daily action, rising 1.26% DoD, 3.23% WoW and 6.63% MoM, running 33.75% YoY and adding 3.63bps to the day's move. Shelter added steadier pressure: Owned costs rose 0.26% MoM (3.23% YoY), Rent 0.17% MoM (2.09% YoY). The gauge sits 0.15pp below the official July CPI print of 3.4% YoY, consistent with the Nowflation's 3.229% Nowflation Forecast for the August release, undershooting the Street's 3.4% consensus. Pump prices at $4.277 face a 2-week forward of $4.521, a 24.4-cent step-up signaling further fuel-driven upside.

The print ahead — August 2026 CPI, Friday, September 11, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET (in 1 day)

Forecaster	Headline CPI YoY call
Nowflation Forecast (pre-registered ensemble)	3.34%
Nowflation model (in-house)	3.23%
Street consensus	3.4%
Cleveland Fed nowcast	3.38%
Kalshi — ladder-implied mean (our calculation; market)	3.39%
Prior print	3.4%

Our call sits −0.06pp versus the Street; the Gauge runs −0.15pp versus the July 2026 print of 3.4% that this release replaces. The forecast is a separate product from the Gauge — the Gauge measures today's prices; the forecast is the pre-registered call for what the BLS will print, graded after every release (August 2026 preview and grading).

Shelter, fuel, Truflation, jobs

Shelter: all-tenant rent index 2.09% YoY (+0.17% month over month), the reading the Gauge uses as measured; owned shelter 3.23% YoY; official rent 2.86% and owners' equivalent rent 3.23% (2026-07, BLS).
Fuel: pump price $4.277 (AAA daily, 2026-09-10), +13.4¢ on the week; RBOB implies $4.521 in two weeks (+24.4¢).
Truflation: 2.29% (2026-09-09); the Gauge is +0.96pp against it and Truflation is −1.11pp against the official print — a different construction, reconciled on the Nowflation vs Truflation page.
Jobs: September 2026 payrolls land October 2, 2026 (22 days): Nowflation model +91K vs Street +120K.

Method

The Nowflation Gauge is a measurement of today’s prices — live market sources for the components that have them (all-tenant rents measured from this month’s new leases, pump prices, used-vehicle auctions) and the latest BLS subindex, held as measured, for the rest. It is never a forecast. The print-day call is a separate product: the Nowflation Forecast is the pre-registered ensemble for the next CPI release (locked the evening before, graded after); the in-house model is shown alongside it. The wire paragraph is written by Claude from the day’s engine figures only (model alias in each record; a deterministic template when the API is unavailable). The “what moved” bullets are computed, not written. recomputed 8:40 AM & 6 PM ET · published 9 AM ET · 8:45 AM ET on print days. Methodology · every input, exposed · calendar feed, RSS and email.

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