Nowflation Gauge holds at 1.81% YoY, flat on the day as Motor Fuel's -0.1% dip offsets a firmer weekly trend.

The Daily Brief for July 13, 2026, as the data stood that morning · Fuel-led disinflation. Nowflation Gauge 3.00% year over year on 2026-07-13 — −0.003pp on the day, +0.096pp on the week, −0.304pp on the month; seasonally adjusted pace 0.87% annualized over three months and −2.05% over one. Official CPI 4.2% (May 2026, released 2026-06-10); gap −1.20pp. About 43% of the basket is priced from live sources; the rest holds the latest BLS subindex as measured.

What moved

The wire

The Gauge prints 1.81% YoY, down 0.003pp on the day but up 0.104pp on the week and off 0.617pp on the month; cumulative gains since January 2018 stand at 34%. Motor Fuel remains the swing factor: -0.1% DoD, +1.98% WoW, -6.78% MoM, still up 23.68% YoY, contributing -0.31bps daily. Shelter: Owned holds firmer at 2.72% YoY versus Rent's 0.69%, while Used Vehicles stay in deflation at -2.04%. The Gauge's -2.39pp gap to the official May print (CPI 4.2%, prior 3.8%, core 2.9%) suggests June's official release, Nowflation Forecast at 4.025% versus Street's 3.8%, could again outpace real-time pricing. Pump price at $3.872 with a two-week forward of $3.942 points to a further 7-cent upside drag ahead.

As written on 2026-07-13, under the gauge construction in force that day; the readings above reflect the current construction (v1.3, since September 2, 2026), so the levels differ.

The print ahead — June 2026 CPI, Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET (printed 3.5%)

ForecasterHeadline CPI YoY call
Nowflation Forecast (pre-registered ensemble)3.89%
Nowflation model (in-house)4.03%
Street consensus3.8%
Cleveland Fed nowcast3.92%
Kalshi market-implied3.80%
Prior print4.2%

Our call sits +0.09pp versus the Street; the Gauge runs −1.20pp versus the May 2026 print of 4.2% that this release replaces. Graded: the call missed by +0.39pp. The forecast is a separate product from the Gauge — the Gauge measures today's prices; the forecast is the pre-registered call for what the BLS will print, graded after every release (June 2026 preview and grading).

Shelter, fuel, Truflation, jobs

Method

The Nowflation Gauge is a measurement of today’s prices — live market sources for the components that have them (all-tenant rents measured from this month’s new leases, pump prices, used-vehicle auctions) and the latest BLS subindex, held as measured, for the rest. It is never a forecast. The print-day call is a separate product: the Nowflation Forecast is the pre-registered ensemble for the next CPI release (locked the evening before, graded after); the in-house model is shown alongside it. The wire paragraph is written by Claude from the day’s engine figures only (model alias in each record; a deterministic template when the API is unavailable). The “what moved” bullets are computed, not written. recomputed 8:40 AM & 6 PM ET · published 9 AM ET · 8:45 AM ET on print days. Methodology · every input, exposed · calendar feed, RSS and email.

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