Before each CPI print we put a forecast on the record and grade it after, misses included. Our headline call is the Nowflation CPI Forecast, an error-weighted blend of our in-house model, the Cleveland Fed nowcast and the Street consensus, each weighted by its graded track record. The in-house model's vintage-true backtest covers 86 prints (2019-01 to 2026-05) at 0.161pp mean absolute error vs 0.329pp for a naive baseline; the blend is tighter still. Nowflation's record to date is an honest vintage-true backtest — June is our first live call.
The Nowflation CPI Forecast (our error-weighted ensemble) for June headline CPI YoY is 3.3%, with our independent in-house model at 3.2%; Cleveland Fed 3.4%, Kalshi 3.4%. Pre-registered with a dated, immutable receipt at /forecasts/2026-06.json.
| Forecaster | Prints | MAE (pp) | Closest-call % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Street Consensus | 43 | 0.088 | 49% |
| Cleveland Fed | 43 | 0.105 | 30% |
| Nowflation Model | 41 | 0.141 | 22% |
| Nowflation Forecast | 2 | 0.161 | 0% |
| Kalshi Market | 2 | 0.181 | 0% |
| Actual | Street Consensus | Cleveland Fed | Kalshi Market | Nowflation Forecast | Nowflation Model | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07 | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.65% | 3.347% | 3.421% | 3.46% |
| 2026-06 | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.65% | 3.809% | 3.8% | 4.025% |
| 2026-05 | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.18% | — | — | 4.255% |
| 2026-04 | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.565% | — | — | 3.686% |
| 2026-03 | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.252% | — | — | 3.34% |
| 2026-02 | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.406% | — | — | 2.49% |
| 2026-01 | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.364% | — | — | 2.422% |
| 2025-12 | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.573% | — | — | 2.44% |
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