Nowflation Gauge holds at 2.14% YoY as Motor Fuel slips 0.07% on the day, keeping the daily read subdued.

The Daily Brief for August 25, 2026, as the data stood that morning · Fuel-led disinflation. Nowflation Gauge 2.96% year over year on 2026-08-25 — −0.002pp on the day, +0.022pp on the week, −0.045pp on the month; seasonally adjusted pace 0.39% annualized over three months and 2.36% over one. Official CPI 3.4% (July 2026, released 2026-08-12); gap −0.44pp. About 43% of the basket is priced from live sources; the rest holds the latest BLS subindex as measured.

What moved

Gauge 2.96% YoY, −0.002pp on the day and +0.022pp on the week; seasonally adjusted pace 0.39% annualized over three months, 2.36% over one.
Motor Fuel −0.07% on the day (+0.76% on the week, 30.83% YoY) — −0.22bps to the headline.
Gauge runs −0.44pp versus the July 2026 print of 3.4%; August 2026 CPI lands in 17 days — Nowflation Forecast 3.31% vs Street 3.4%, Cleveland Fed 3.36%.

The wire

The Nowflation Gauge printed 2.14% YoY, down 0.023pp on the day but up 0.007pp on the week, extending a 0.176pp monthly slide. Motor Fuel led the tape, off 0.07% on the day and 0.34% on the month even as its yoy pace stayed elevated at 29.92%, contributing -0.22bps to the daily move. Shelter: Rent rose 0.21% on the month with a 1.26% yoy pace, while Shelter: Owned held flat yoy at 2.89%. The gauge sits 1.26pp below the official July CPI print of 3.4%, pointing to a softer August release than the Street's 3.223% Nowflation Forecast implies. Forward fuel prices point to a 9.6-cent rise to $4.192 over two weeks, a potential headwind for the next reading.

As written on 2026-08-25, under the gauge construction in force that day; the readings above reflect the current construction (v1.3, since September 2, 2026), so the levels differ.

The print ahead — August 2026 CPI, Friday, September 11, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET (in 17 days)

Forecaster	Headline CPI YoY call
Nowflation Forecast (pre-registered ensemble)	3.31%
Nowflation model (in-house)	3.22%
Street consensus	3.4%
Cleveland Fed nowcast	3.36%
Kalshi market-implied	3.38%
Prior print	3.4%

Our call sits −0.09pp versus the Street; the Gauge runs −0.44pp versus the July 2026 print of 3.4% that this release replaces. The forecast is a separate product from the Gauge — the Gauge measures today's prices; the forecast is the pre-registered call for what the BLS will print, graded after every release (August 2026 preview and grading).

Shelter, fuel, Truflation, jobs

Shelter: all-tenant rent index 1.68% YoY (+0.16% month over month), the reading the Gauge uses as measured; owned shelter 3.23% YoY; official rent 2.86% and owners' equivalent rent 3.23% (2026-07, BLS).
Fuel: pump price $4.096 (AAA daily, 2026-08-25), +3.1¢ on the week; RBOB implies $4.245 in two weeks (+14.9¢).
Truflation: 2.27% (2026-08-25); the Gauge is +0.69pp against it and Truflation is −1.13pp against the official print — a different construction, reconciled on the Nowflation vs Truflation page.
Jobs: August 2026 payrolls land September 4, 2026 (10 days): Nowflation model +71K vs Street +56K; printed +162K.

Method

The Nowflation Gauge is a measurement of today’s prices — live market sources for the components that have them (all-tenant rents measured from this month’s new leases, pump prices, used-vehicle auctions) and the latest BLS subindex, held as measured, for the rest. It is never a forecast. The print-day call is a separate product: the Nowflation Forecast is the pre-registered ensemble for the next CPI release (locked the evening before, graded after); the in-house model is shown alongside it. The wire paragraph is written by Claude from the day’s engine figures only (model alias in each record; a deterministic template when the API is unavailable). The “what moved” bullets are computed, not written. recomputed 8:40 AM & 6 PM ET · published 9 AM ET · 8:45 AM ET on print days. Methodology · every input, exposed · calendar feed, RSS and email.

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