Nowflation Gauge holds at 2.16% YoY as motor fuel prices dip 0.17% on the day, keeping inflation subdued ahead of August's CPI print.

The Daily Brief for August 22, 2026, as the data stood that morning · Fuel-led disinflation. Nowflation Gauge 2.97% year over year on 2026-08-22 — −0.006pp on the day, +0.019pp on the week, −0.023pp on the month; seasonally adjusted pace 0.41% annualized over three months and 2.95% over one. Official CPI 3.4% (July 2026, released 2026-08-12); gap −0.43pp. About 43% of the basket is priced from live sources; the rest holds the latest BLS subindex as measured.

What moved

The wire

The Nowflation Gauge eased to 2.16% YoY, down 0.006pp on the day but up 0.022pp on the week, extending its 34.7% cumulative rise since January 2018. Motor Fuel led daily moves, falling 0.17% DoD despite a 0.79% WoW gain and 31.03% YoY surge, contributing -0.51bps. Shelter Rent rose 0.21% MoM with a 1.26% YoY read, while Owned Shelter held flat at 2.89% YoY. The gauge sits 1.24pp below July's official 3.4% CPI print, whose core cooled to 2.5% from 2.6%. The August Nowflation Forecast points to 3.221%, signaling a modest deceleration versus July. Pump prices at $4.102 are set to climb to $4.254 within two weeks, a 15.2-cent increase that threatens to reverse the fuel-led relief.

As written on 2026-08-22, under the gauge construction in force that day; the readings above reflect the current construction (v1.3, since September 2, 2026), so the levels differ.

The print ahead — August 2026 CPI, Friday, September 11, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET (in 20 days)

ForecasterHeadline CPI YoY call
Nowflation Forecast (pre-registered ensemble)3.31%
Nowflation model (in-house)3.22%
Street consensus3.4%
Cleveland Fed nowcast3.36%
Kalshi market-implied3.37%
Prior print3.4%

Our call sits −0.09pp versus the Street; the Gauge runs −0.43pp versus the July 2026 print of 3.4% that this release replaces. The forecast is a separate product from the Gauge — the Gauge measures today's prices; the forecast is the pre-registered call for what the BLS will print, graded after every release (August 2026 preview and grading).

Shelter, fuel, Truflation, jobs

Method

The Nowflation Gauge is a measurement of today’s prices — live market sources for the components that have them (all-tenant rents measured from this month’s new leases, pump prices, used-vehicle auctions) and the latest BLS subindex, held as measured, for the rest. It is never a forecast. The print-day call is a separate product: the Nowflation Forecast is the pre-registered ensemble for the next CPI release (locked the evening before, graded after); the in-house model is shown alongside it. The wire paragraph is written by Claude from the day’s engine figures only (model alias in each record; a deterministic template when the API is unavailable). The “what moved” bullets are computed, not written. recomputed 8:40 AM & 6 PM ET · published 9 AM ET · 8:45 AM ET on print days. Methodology · every input, exposed · calendar feed, RSS and email.

Archive — one brief per day

Dashboard · Today's brief · CPI forecast · Scoreboard