Nowflation Gauge holds at 1.78% YoY, down 0.016pp on the day, as motor fuel keeps dragging on real-time prices.

The Daily Brief for July 14, 2026, as the data stood that morning · Fuel-led disinflation. Nowflation Gauge 2.96% year over year on 2026-07-14 — −0.045pp on the day, +0.057pp on the week, −0.349pp on the month; seasonally adjusted pace 0.69% annualized over three months and −2.55% over one. Official CPI 3.5% (June 2026, released 2026-07-14); gap −0.54pp. About 43% of the basket is priced from live sources; the rest holds the latest BLS subindex as measured.

What moved

Gauge 2.96% YoY, −0.045pp on the day and +0.057pp on the week; seasonally adjusted pace 0.69% annualized over three months, −2.55% over one.
Shelter: Owned +0.24% on the day (+0.24% on the week, 3.57% YoY) — +6.36bps to the headline.
Gauge runs −0.54pp versus the June 2026 print of 3.5%; July 2026 CPI lands in 29 days — Nowflation model 3.38% vs Street 3.4%, Cleveland Fed 3.29%.

The wire

Nowflation Gauge printed 1.78% YoY on 2026-07-14, off 0.016pp DoD but up 0.058pp WoW, with the monthly trend easing 0.634pp. Motor Fuel remains the dominant swing factor: down 0.34% DoD and 7.09% MoM despite a 1.82% weekly bounce, still up 23.07% YoY and shaving 1.01bps off the daily print. Shelter: Owned sits at 2.97% YoY versus Rent's 0.69%. The gauge runs 1.72pp below the official June CPI of 3.5% (prior 4.2%, core 2.6%), a gap that argues for a softer real-time trend than the Nowflation model of 4.025% or the Street's 3.8% consensus for the June release. Fuel forwards point higher, up 7.3 cents to $3.932 from $3.859 at the pump over two weeks.

As written on 2026-07-14, under the gauge construction in force that day; the readings above reflect the current construction (v1.3, since September 2, 2026), so the levels differ.

The print ahead — July 2026 CPI, Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET (printed 3.4%)

Forecaster	Headline CPI YoY call
Nowflation Forecast (pre-registered ensemble)	not posted yet
Nowflation model (in-house)	3.38%
Street consensus	3.4%
Cleveland Fed nowcast	3.29%
Kalshi market-implied	3.59%
Prior print	3.5%

Our call sits −0.02pp versus the Street; the Gauge runs −0.54pp versus the June 2026 print of 3.5% that this release replaces. Graded: the call missed by −0.02pp. The forecast is a separate product from the Gauge — the Gauge measures today's prices; the forecast is the pre-registered call for what the BLS will print, graded after every release (July 2026 preview and grading).

Shelter, fuel, Truflation, jobs

Shelter: all-tenant rent index 1.71% YoY (+0.14% month over month), the reading the Gauge uses as measured; owned shelter 3.57% YoY; official rent 2.86% and owners' equivalent rent 3.23% (2026-07, BLS).
Fuel: pump price $3.859 (AAA daily, 2026-07-14), +6.9¢ on the week; RBOB implies $3.958 in two weeks (+9.9¢).
Truflation: 1.92% (2026-07-14); the Gauge is +1.04pp against it and Truflation is −1.58pp against the official print — a different construction, reconciled on the Nowflation vs Truflation page.
Jobs: July 2026 payrolls land August 7, 2026 (24 days): Nowflation model +148K vs Street +80K; printed −23K.

Method

The Nowflation Gauge is a measurement of today’s prices — live market sources for the components that have them (all-tenant rents measured from this month’s new leases, pump prices, used-vehicle auctions) and the latest BLS subindex, held as measured, for the rest. It is never a forecast. The print-day call is a separate product: the Nowflation Forecast is the pre-registered ensemble for the next CPI release (locked the evening before, graded after); the in-house model is shown alongside it. The wire paragraph is written by Claude from the day’s engine figures only (model alias in each record; a deterministic template when the API is unavailable). The “what moved” bullets are computed, not written. recomputed 8:40 AM & 6 PM ET · published 9 AM ET · 8:45 AM ET on print days. Methodology · every input, exposed · calendar feed, RSS and email.

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