Nowflation Gauge holds at 1.81% YoY, up 0.03pp on the day as Motor Fuel jumps 0.8% daily.

The Daily Brief for July 15, 2026, as the data stood that morning · Fuel-driven acceleration. Nowflation Gauge 2.81% year over year on 2026-07-15 — −0.147pp on the day, −0.099pp on the week, −0.496pp on the month; seasonally adjusted pace 0.80% annualized over three months and −2.24% over one. Official CPI 3.5% (June 2026, released 2026-07-14); gap −0.69pp. About 43% of the basket is priced from live sources; the rest holds the latest BLS subindex as measured.

What moved

Gauge 2.81% YoY, −0.147pp on the day and −0.099pp on the week; seasonally adjusted pace 0.80% annualized over three months, −2.24% over one.
Motor Fuel +0.80% on the day (+2.48% on the week, 24.05% YoY) — +2.41bps to the headline.
Gauge runs −0.69pp versus the June 2026 print of 3.5%; July 2026 CPI lands in 28 days — Nowflation Forecast 3.35% vs Street 3.4%, Cleveland Fed 3.32%.

The wire

The Nowflation Gauge reads 1.81% YoY as of July 15, up 0.028pp on the day and 0.08pp on the week, though down 0.521pp on the month. Motor Fuel remains the dominant swing factor, up 0.8% daily and 2.48% weekly, contributing 2.41bps to the day's move, even as its monthly trend eased 4.17% with YoY still at 24.05%. Shelter: Owned sits at 2.97% YoY versus 0.69% for Rent. The gauge runs 1.69pp below the official June CPI print of 3.5% YoY (prior 4.2%), a gap consistent with the 3.383% Nowflation Forecast for the July release. Fuel forwards point 10.3 cents higher over two weeks, to $3.993 from $3.89 at the pump.

As written on 2026-07-15, under the gauge construction in force that day; the readings above reflect the current construction (v1.3, since September 2, 2026), so the levels differ.

The print ahead — July 2026 CPI, Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET (printed 3.4%)

Forecaster	Headline CPI YoY call
Nowflation Forecast (pre-registered ensemble)	3.35%
Nowflation model (in-house)	3.38%
Street consensus	3.4%
Cleveland Fed nowcast	3.32%
Kalshi market-implied	3.49%
Prior print	3.5%

Our call sits −0.05pp versus the Street; the Gauge runs −0.69pp versus the June 2026 print of 3.5% that this release replaces. Graded: the call missed by −0.05pp. The forecast is a separate product from the Gauge — the Gauge measures today's prices; the forecast is the pre-registered call for what the BLS will print, graded after every release (July 2026 preview and grading).

Shelter, fuel, Truflation, jobs

Shelter: all-tenant rent index 1.71% YoY (+0.14% month over month), the reading the Gauge uses as measured; owned shelter 3.25% YoY; official rent 2.86% and owners' equivalent rent 3.23% (2026-07, BLS).
Fuel: pump price $3.890 (AAA daily, 2026-07-15), +9.4¢ on the week; RBOB implies $4.031 in two weeks (+14.1¢).
Truflation: 1.90% (2026-07-15); the Gauge is +0.91pp against it and Truflation is −1.60pp against the official print — a different construction, reconciled on the Nowflation vs Truflation page.
Jobs: July 2026 payrolls land August 7, 2026 (23 days): Nowflation model +148K vs Street +80K; printed −23K.

Method

The Nowflation Gauge is a measurement of today’s prices — live market sources for the components that have them (all-tenant rents measured from this month’s new leases, pump prices, used-vehicle auctions) and the latest BLS subindex, held as measured, for the rest. It is never a forecast. The print-day call is a separate product: the Nowflation Forecast is the pre-registered ensemble for the next CPI release (locked the evening before, graded after); the in-house model is shown alongside it. The wire paragraph is written by Claude from the day’s engine figures only (model alias in each record; a deterministic template when the API is unavailable). The “what moved” bullets are computed, not written. recomputed 8:40 AM & 6 PM ET · published 9 AM ET · 8:45 AM ET on print days. Methodology · every input, exposed · calendar feed, RSS and email.

Archive — one brief per day

Dashboard · Today's brief · CPI forecast · Scoreboard