Nowflation Gauge holds at 2.0% YoY as Motor Fuel's 31.24% YoY surge drives the daily move.

The Daily Brief for July 31, 2026, as the data stood that morning · Fuel-led disinflation. Nowflation Gauge 3.00% year over year on 2026-07-31 — +0.007pp on the day, −0.001pp on the week, +0.058pp on the month; seasonally adjusted pace 1.58% annualized over three months and 3.23% over one. Official CPI 3.5% (June 2026, released 2026-07-14); gap −0.50pp. About 43% of the basket is priced from live sources; the rest holds the latest BLS subindex as measured.

What moved

Gauge 3.00% YoY, +0.007pp on the day and −0.001pp on the week; seasonally adjusted pace 1.58% annualized over three months, 3.23% over one.
Motor Fuel +0.20% on the day (+0.02% on the week, 31.24% YoY) — +0.58bps to the headline.
Gauge runs −0.50pp versus the June 2026 print of 3.5%; July 2026 CPI lands in 12 days — Nowflation Forecast 3.42% vs Street 3.4%, Cleveland Fed 3.42%.

The wire

Nowflation Gauge stands at 2.0% YoY as of 2026-07-31, down 0.035pp on the day and 0.043pp on the week, though up 0.107pp on the month; cost-of-living gauge reads 2.26%. Motor Fuel remains the dominant driver, up 0.19% DoD, 6.98% MoM and 31.24% YoY, contributing 0.58bps to the daily move; Shelter: Owned holds a 2.97% YoY pace against Rent's 0.85%. The gauge sits 1.5pp below the official June 2026 CPI print of 3.5% YoY (prior 4.2%, core 2.6% vs 2.9% prior), pointing to a softer July 2026 release near the Street's 3.4% consensus versus the model's 3.46% Nowflation Forecast. Forward pump prices firm to $4.136 from $4.106, up 3 cents.

As written on 2026-07-31, under the gauge construction in force that day; the readings above reflect the current construction (v1.3, since September 2, 2026), so the levels differ.

The print ahead — July 2026 CPI, Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET (printed 3.4%)

Forecaster	Headline CPI YoY call
Nowflation Forecast (pre-registered ensemble)	3.42%
Nowflation model (in-house)	3.46%
Street consensus	3.4%
Cleveland Fed nowcast	3.42%
Kalshi market-implied	3.39%
Prior print	3.5%

Our call sits +0.02pp versus the Street; the Gauge runs −0.50pp versus the June 2026 print of 3.5% that this release replaces. Graded: the call missed by +0.02pp. The forecast is a separate product from the Gauge — the Gauge measures today's prices; the forecast is the pre-registered call for what the BLS will print, graded after every release (July 2026 preview and grading).

Shelter, fuel, Truflation, jobs

Shelter: all-tenant rent index 1.68% YoY (+0.15% month over month), the reading the Gauge uses as measured; owned shelter 3.25% YoY; official rent 2.86% and owners' equivalent rent 3.23% (2026-07, BLS).
Fuel: pump price $4.106 (AAA daily, 2026-07-31), +0.1¢ on the week; RBOB implies $4.134 in two weeks (+2.8¢).
Truflation: 2.10% (2026-07-31); the Gauge is +0.91pp against it and Truflation is −1.40pp against the official print — a different construction, reconciled on the Nowflation vs Truflation page.
Jobs: July 2026 payrolls land August 7, 2026 (7 days): Nowflation model +198K vs Street +80K; printed −23K.

Method

The Nowflation Gauge is a measurement of today’s prices — live market sources for the components that have them (all-tenant rents measured from this month’s new leases, pump prices, used-vehicle auctions) and the latest BLS subindex, held as measured, for the rest. It is never a forecast. The print-day call is a separate product: the Nowflation Forecast is the pre-registered ensemble for the next CPI release (locked the evening before, graded after); the in-house model is shown alongside it. The wire paragraph is written by Claude from the day’s engine figures only (model alias in each record; a deterministic template when the API is unavailable). The “what moved” bullets are computed, not written. recomputed 8:40 AM & 6 PM ET · published 9 AM ET · 8:45 AM ET on print days. Methodology · every input, exposed · calendar feed, RSS and email.

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