Truflation's US inflation index reads 2.28% as of 2026-09-02 (read from the public TRUF.NETWORK stream — data provider 0x4710a8d8f0d845da110086812a32de6d90d7ff5c, stream st1e321de22ece39a258bc2588dd2871, 6,089 daily values since 2010-01-01); the Nowflation Gauge reads 2.88% and its CPI-Tracker variant 3.34% (2026-09-02); the latest official CPI-U print is 3.4% for July 2026, released 2026-08-12. Gaps to the print: Truflation -1.12pp, Nowflation Gauge -0.52pp, CPI-Tracker -0.06pp; the Gauge reads +0.60pp above Truflation. Next print 2026-09-11; Nowflation's pre-registered call for the August 2026 print is 3.33%.
| Window | Truflation | Nowflation Gauge | Nowflation CPI-Tracker |
|---|---|---|---|
| since Jan 2019 (90 prints) | 1.13 / +0.09 / 1.57 / 0.908 | 0.52 / +0.16 / 0.62 / 0.965 | 0.43 / -0.04 / 0.58 / 0.971 |
| since Jul 2023 (36 prints) | 0.92 / -0.90 / 0.56 / 0.378 | 0.37 / -0.29 / 0.30 / 0.8 | 0.27 / -0.13 / 0.31 / 0.775 |
| last 12 prints (12 prints) | 1.26 / -1.26 / 0.61 / 0.358 | 0.50 / -0.44 / 0.33 / 0.81 | 0.26 / -0.10 / 0.33 / 0.821 |
Closest to the print: Nowflation CPI-Tracker since January 2019 (Nowflation CPI-Tracker 0.43pp, Nowflation Gauge 0.52pp, Truflation 1.13pp); Nowflation CPI-Tracker since July 2023 (Nowflation CPI-Tracker 0.27pp, Nowflation Gauge 0.37pp, Truflation 0.92pp); Nowflation CPI-Tracker over the last 12 prints (Nowflation CPI-Tracker 0.26pp, Nowflation Gauge 0.50pp, Truflation 1.26pp). Both real-time gauges have read below the print since July 2023 — Truflation by 0.90pp on average, the Gauge by 0.29pp — while the CPI-Tracker, which keeps the official shelter index, has read within 0.13pp. Lead test (correlation of each series' monthly average with official CPI YoY k months later): Truflation: k = 1 (r 0.957) since 2019, k = 0 (r 0.373) since July 2023; Nowflation Gauge: k = 0 (r 0.978) since 2019, k = 0 (r 0.904) since July 2023; Nowflation CPI-Tracker: k = 0 (r 0.989) since 2019, k = 0 (r 0.923) since July 2023. Truflation's own estimate is a lead of about 45 days (r 0.83 in the current regime, February 2026).
| Category | Truflation (2026 weights) | BLS CPI-U | Nowflation Gauge (2026-07-31) | Δ Truflation − BLS | Δ Nowflation − BLS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Food & non-alcoholic beverages | 15.2 / +2.2% / +0.34pp | 13.9 / +3.0% / +0.41pp | 13.9 / +3.0% / +0.41pp | -0.08pp | -0.00pp |
| Housing | 23.1 / -4.0% / -0.93pp | 34 / +3.2% / +1.08pp | 34 / +1.7% / +0.57pp | -2.01pp | -0.51pp |
| Transportation | 19.8 / +3.9% / +0.77pp | 8.7 / +8.7% / +0.76pp | 8.7 / +11.5% / +1.00pp | +0.02pp | +0.24pp |
| Utilities | 6 / +7.6% / +0.45pp | 3.5 / +4.2% / +0.15pp | 3.5 / +3.8% / +0.13pp | +0.30pp | -0.01pp |
| Health | 8.8 / +10.1% / +0.89pp | 8.1 / +1.7% / +0.14pp | 8.1 / +2.0% / +0.16pp | +0.75pp | +0.03pp |
| Household durables & daily-use items | 7.1 / +4.0% / +0.28pp | — | — | — | — |
| Alcohol & tobacco | 1.8 / +3.3% / +0.06pp | — | — | — | — |
| Clothing & footwear | 3.8 / +3.9% / +0.15pp | 2.5 / +3.9% / +0.10pp | 2.5 / +3.9% / +0.10pp | +0.05pp | 0.00pp |
| Communications | 3.3 / -1.6% / -0.05pp | — | — | — | — |
| Education | 2.3 / +7.8% / +0.18pp | 5.5 / +0.6% / +0.03pp | 5.5 / -0.1% / -0.00pp | +0.15pp | -0.03pp |
| Recreation & culture | 5.5 / +2.0% / +0.11pp | 5.3 / +2.6% / +0.14pp | 5.3 / +2.8% / +0.15pp | -0.03pp | +0.01pp |
| Other | 3.4 / +1.0% / +0.03pp | — / +4.3% / — | 18.5 / +2.6% / +0.47pp | — | — |
| Headline | 2.0% published (weighted sum of the rows 2.28%) | 3.4% (mapped rows +2.80pp over 81.5% of the basket) | 2.96% | -1.12pp | -0.44pp |
Housing is most of the difference: in July 2026 Truflation had housing at -4.0% on a 23.1% weight (a cost-of-ownership index moves with home prices and mortgage rates), the BLS shelter index was +3.2% on a 34% weight (owners' equivalent rent is a smoothed rent survey), and the Nowflation Gauge used asking rents at +1.7% on the full shelter weight — -2.01pp and -0.51pp against the print respectively. Health pulls the other way: Truflation's +10.1% (insurance premiums inside it) contributes +0.89pp against +0.14pp for the BLS medical-care index, which prices health insurance indirectly. Truflation's July headline is the month's average of its daily index (1.96% from the stream); the weighted sum of its one-decimal category YoYs is 2.28%, the difference being rounding and timing. The BLS column covers 81.5% of the CPI basket with a clean subindex match; the unmapped 18.5% contributes +0.60pp.
Truflation — A cost-of-living index on a household-spending basket, published daily. Twelve categories weighted by prior-year household spending — credit-card transaction data, Census data and household-expenditure data from Global Demographics and NielsenIQ, validated against Truflation’s own feeds — against the 24-month-old expenditure survey behind the CPI weights. The 2026 weights put housing at 23.1% of the basket; shelter is about 34% of the BLS CPI-U. Rented dwellings (8.1% of the basket): five sources equally weighted — Numbeo, Penn State ACY, Zillow, Redfin and Apartment List. Owned dwellings (13.7%): a cost-of-ownership calculation — property values, new-mortgage rates from Freddie Mac blended into the existing mortgage stock, property taxes, maintenance and insurance — rather than the BLS owners’-equivalent-rent imputation. Health (8.8%) includes health-insurance premiums at a 6.2% weight; transportation (19.8%) carries vehicle insurance at 3.2%. Monthly sources are carried forward daily; the index is based 2010-01-01 = 100 and YoY is the index against its value 365 days earlier. New data posts at 23:00 UTC with a 24-hour hold. Truflation’s own lead estimate: its US index leads the BLS print by about 45 days, with a correlation of 0.83 in the current regime (Truflation, “Truflation as a Leading Indicator of the Official US Inflation”, February 2026 — https://truflation.com/blog/truflation-leading-indicator-of-us-cpi).
Nowflation — What would the CPI print if its inputs were read today? The CPI basket and BLS weights with live inputs where they lead, graded against the print. Fourteen components on the BLS CPI-U relative-importance weights (shelter about 34%), each a publication-dated daily index built from the BLS subindex with a live overlay spliced on where one has a better record: Zillow ZORI + Apartment List asking rents on both the rent and owners’-equivalent weights, AAA’s daily pump price for gasoline, Manheim’s wholesale index for used vehicles (30-day lag). Everything without a better daily source rides its official subindex between prints; YoY is the same calendar day a year earlier. The CPI-Tracker variant keeps the official shelter indexes, so it re-tracks the print instead of leading it; the Gauge is the flagship number. Every reading is stored with the date it was pulled, the daily history is rebuilt on the publication calendar (method v1.1), and the next-print forecast is pre-registered and graded on /scoreboard.
Method: Same method for all three: the reading dated the day before each BLS release (Truflation: the stream value stamped that day; Nowflation: the engine’s daily headline for that day) against the release’s headline YoY on the NSA index at one decimal, exactly as BLS quotes it. Reference month = the month before the release month; one release per calendar month (the seasonal-factor revision date is not a print). mean_gap is signed (reading − print), sd_gap its sample standard deviation, mae the mean absolute gap, corr the Pearson r of readings against prints. Lead test: each series’ calendar-month average (complete months only) against official YoY k months later. Nowflation’s daily history is the engine’s v1.1 publication-dated rebuild, not frozen daily vintages; Truflation’s is the stream as read today. Neither is a pre-registered forecast of the print — the graded receipts for that live on /scoreboard. Sources: Truflation US Inflation Index, Truflation US monthly inflation report — July 2026, Truflation 2026 CPI weights, Truflation methodology, TRUF.NETWORK public stream (provider 0x4710a8d8…, stream st1e321de22ece39a258bc2588dd2871); BLS CPI-U all items NSA via FRED (CPIAUCNS) with release dates from the BLS calendar; the Nowflation engine (see methodology and The Gauge, Exposed). Updated every morning with the engine.
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