Nowflation Gauge holds at 2.14% YoY, edging up 0.005pp on the day as Motor Fuel prices rise 0.12% amid a firming pump forward.

The Daily Brief for August 26, 2026, as the data stood that morning · Fuel-led firming. Nowflation Gauge 2.95% year over year on 2026-08-26 — −0.016pp on the day, −0.007pp on the week, −0.061pp on the month; seasonally adjusted pace 0.46% annualized over three months and 2.42% over one. Official CPI 3.4% (July 2026, released 2026-08-12); gap −0.45pp. About 43% of the basket is priced from live sources; the rest holds the latest BLS subindex as measured.

What moved

Gauge 2.95% YoY, −0.016pp on the day and −0.007pp on the week; seasonally adjusted pace 0.46% annualized over three months, 2.42% over one.
Motor Fuel +0.12% on the day (+0.37% on the week, 30.08% YoY) — +0.37bps to the headline.
Gauge runs −0.45pp versus the July 2026 print of 3.4%; August 2026 CPI lands in 16 days — Nowflation Forecast 3.31% vs Street 3.4%, Cleveland Fed 3.37%.

The wire

The Nowflation Gauge stands at 2.14% YoY on 2026-08-26, up 0.005pp day-on-day but down 0.006pp week-on-week and down 0.171pp month-on-month, with cumulative inflation since January 2018 at 34.7%. Cost-of-living inflation runs hotter at 2.54%. Motor Fuel leads daily movement, up 0.12% DoD, 0.37% WoW, though down 0.22% MoM, with YoY still elevated at 30.08%. Shelter: Rent rose 0.21% MoM, up 1.26% YoY, while Shelter: Owned holds at 2.89% YoY. The gauge sits 1.26pp below the official July 2026 CPI print of 3.4% (prior 3.5%, core 2.5% vs 2.6%), pointing to a below-consensus August 2026 CPI reading against the 3.224% Nowflation Forecast. Retail fuel at $4.101 per gallon points 9.5 cents higher over the next two weeks to $4.196.

As written on 2026-08-26, under the gauge construction in force that day; the readings above reflect the current construction (v1.3, since September 2, 2026), so the levels differ.

The print ahead — August 2026 CPI, Friday, September 11, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET (in 16 days)

Forecaster	Headline CPI YoY call
Nowflation Forecast (pre-registered ensemble)	3.31%
Nowflation model (in-house)	3.22%
Street consensus	3.4%
Cleveland Fed nowcast	3.37%
Kalshi market-implied	3.37%
Prior print	3.4%

Our call sits −0.09pp versus the Street; the Gauge runs −0.45pp versus the July 2026 print of 3.4% that this release replaces. The forecast is a separate product from the Gauge — the Gauge measures today's prices; the forecast is the pre-registered call for what the BLS will print, graded after every release (August 2026 preview and grading).

Shelter, fuel, Truflation, jobs

Shelter: all-tenant rent index 1.68% YoY (+0.16% month over month), the reading the Gauge uses as measured; owned shelter 3.23% YoY; official rent 2.86% and owners' equivalent rent 3.23% (2026-07, BLS).
Fuel: pump price $4.101 (AAA daily, 2026-08-26), +1.5¢ on the week; RBOB implies $4.269 in two weeks (+16.8¢).
Truflation: 2.28% (2026-08-26); the Gauge is +0.67pp against it and Truflation is −1.12pp against the official print — a different construction, reconciled on the Nowflation vs Truflation page.
Jobs: August 2026 payrolls land September 4, 2026 (9 days): Nowflation model +71K vs Street +56K; printed +162K.

Method

The Nowflation Gauge is a measurement of today’s prices — live market sources for the components that have them (all-tenant rents measured from this month’s new leases, pump prices, used-vehicle auctions) and the latest BLS subindex, held as measured, for the rest. It is never a forecast. The print-day call is a separate product: the Nowflation Forecast is the pre-registered ensemble for the next CPI release (locked the evening before, graded after); the in-house model is shown alongside it. The wire paragraph is written by Claude from the day’s engine figures only (model alias in each record; a deterministic template when the API is unavailable). The “what moved” bullets are computed, not written. recomputed 8:40 AM & 6 PM ET · published 9 AM ET · 8:45 AM ET on print days. Methodology · every input, exposed · calendar feed, RSS and email.

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