Nowflation Gauge steadies at 2.96% YoY as motor fuel eases while shelter costs continue their slow grind higher.

The Daily Brief · Fuel cooling, shelter sticky. Nowflation Gauge 2.96% year over year on 2026-09-05 — −0.002pp on the day, +0.030pp on the week, +0.010pp on the month; seasonally adjusted pace 1.54% annualized over three months and 3.69% over one. Official CPI 3.4% (July 2026, released 2026-08-12); gap −0.44pp, verified against the released print. About 43% of the basket is priced from live sources; the rest holds the latest BLS subindex as measured.

What moved

Gauge 2.96% YoY, −0.002pp on the day and +0.030pp on the week; seasonally adjusted pace 1.54% annualized over three months, 3.69% over one.
Motor Fuel −0.05% on the day (+1.57% on the week, 30.23% YoY) — −0.14bps to the headline.
Gauge runs −0.44pp versus the July 2026 print of 3.4%; August 2026 CPI lands in 6 days — Nowflation Forecast 3.36% vs Street 3.4%, Cleveland Fed 3.38%.

The wire

The Nowflation Gauge printed 2.96% YoY, down 0.002pp on the day but up 0.03pp on the week and 0.01pp on the month, with the index up 36.9% cumulatively since January 2018. Motor Fuel eased 0.05% DoD (-0.14bps contribution) yet remains up 30.23% YoY and 2.02% MoM. Shelter: Owned rose 0.26% MoM (3.23% YoY) and Shelter: Rent gained 0.16% MoM (1.68% YoY). The gauge sits 0.44pp below the official July CPI print of 3.4%, pointing to a softer August read against the Street's 3.4% consensus, with the Nowflation model at 3.285%. Forward fuel prices signal further relief: pump at $4.145 versus a two-week forward of $4.062, down 8.3 cents.”

The print ahead — August 2026 CPI, Friday, September 11, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET (in 6 days)

Forecaster	Headline CPI YoY call
Nowflation Forecast (pre-registered ensemble)	3.36%
Nowflation model (in-house)	3.29%
Street consensus	3.4%
Cleveland Fed nowcast	3.38%
Kalshi market-implied	3.37%
Prior print	3.4%

Our call sits −0.04pp versus the Street; the Gauge runs −0.44pp versus the July 2026 print of 3.4% that this release replaces. The forecast is a separate product from the Gauge — the Gauge measures today's prices; the forecast is the pre-registered call for what the BLS will print, graded after every release (August 2026 preview and grading).

Shelter, fuel, Truflation, jobs

Shelter: all-tenant rent index 1.68% YoY (+0.16% month over month), the reading the Gauge uses as measured; owned shelter 3.23% YoY; official rent 2.86% and owners' equivalent rent 3.23% (2026-07, BLS).
Fuel: pump price $4.145 (AAA daily, 2026-09-05), +6.4¢ on the week; RBOB implies $4.062 in two weeks (−8.3¢).
Truflation: 2.32% (2026-09-04); the Gauge is +0.63pp against it and Truflation is −1.08pp against the official print — a different construction, reconciled on the Nowflation vs Truflation page.
Jobs: September 2026 payrolls land October 2, 2026 (27 days): Nowflation model +91K vs Street +120K.

Method

The Nowflation Gauge is a measurement of today’s prices — live market sources for the components that have them (all-tenant rents measured from this month’s new leases, pump prices, used-vehicle auctions) and the latest BLS subindex, held as measured, for the rest. It is never a forecast. The print-day call is a separate product: the Nowflation Forecast is the pre-registered ensemble for the next CPI release (locked the evening before, graded after); the in-house model is shown alongside it. The wire paragraph is written by Claude from the day’s engine figures only (model alias in each record; a deterministic template when the API is unavailable). The “what moved” bullets are computed, not written. recomputed 8:40 AM & 6 PM ET · published 9 AM ET · 8:45 AM ET on print days. Methodology · every input, exposed · calendar feed, RSS and email.

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