Nowflation Gauge holds at 1.88% YoY on Aug 4, down 0.021pp DoD and 0.253pp WoW as motor fuel prices retreat further.

The Daily Brief for August 4, 2026, as the data stood that morning · Fuel-led disinflation. Nowflation Gauge 2.99% year over year on 2026-08-04 — −0.006pp on the day, −0.011pp on the week, +0.073pp on the month; seasonally adjusted pace 1.92% annualized over three months and 4.21% over one. Official CPI 3.5% (June 2026, released 2026-07-14); gap −0.51pp. About 43% of the basket is priced from live sources; the rest holds the latest BLS subindex as measured.

What moved

The wire

The Nowflation Gauge printed 1.88% YoY on 2026-08-04, down 0.021pp DoD and 0.253pp WoW, though up 0.051pp MoM; cumulative gains since January 2018 stand at 34.4%. Cost-of-living inflation reads 1.83%. Motor fuel remains the dominant swing factor, down 0.15% DoD and 0.24% WoW but still up 7.49% MoM and 29.98% YoY. Shelter categories stay firm, with owned housing at 2.62% YoY versus rent at 0.92%; used vehicles remain deflationary at -3.06% YoY. The gauge sits 1.62pp below the official June CPI print of 3.5% YoY (core 2.6%), pointing to a softer-than-Street July release against the 3.46% Nowflation Forecast versus 3.40% consensus. Forward fuel prices imply further relief, with the two-week outlook at $3.956/gallon, down 13.3 cents from the $4.089 pump price.

As written on 2026-08-04, under the gauge construction in force that day; the readings above reflect the current construction (v1.3, since September 2, 2026), so the levels differ.

The print ahead — July 2026 CPI, Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET (printed 3.4%)

ForecasterHeadline CPI YoY call
Nowflation Forecast (pre-registered ensemble)3.42%
Nowflation model (in-house)3.46%
Street consensus3.4%
Cleveland Fed nowcast3.42%
Kalshi market-implied3.39%
Prior print3.5%

Our call sits +0.02pp versus the Street; the Gauge runs −0.51pp versus the June 2026 print of 3.5% that this release replaces. Graded: the call missed by +0.02pp. The forecast is a separate product from the Gauge — the Gauge measures today's prices; the forecast is the pre-registered call for what the BLS will print, graded after every release (July 2026 preview and grading).

Shelter, fuel, Truflation, jobs

Method

The Nowflation Gauge is a measurement of today’s prices — live market sources for the components that have them (all-tenant rents measured from this month’s new leases, pump prices, used-vehicle auctions) and the latest BLS subindex, held as measured, for the rest. It is never a forecast. The print-day call is a separate product: the Nowflation Forecast is the pre-registered ensemble for the next CPI release (locked the evening before, graded after); the in-house model is shown alongside it. The wire paragraph is written by Claude from the day’s engine figures only (model alias in each record; a deterministic template when the API is unavailable). The “what moved” bullets are computed, not written. recomputed 8:40 AM & 6 PM ET · published 9 AM ET · 8:45 AM ET on print days. Methodology · every input, exposed · calendar feed, RSS and email.

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