Prices flow downstream in stages: traded futures lead the shelf by 3–9 months, producer and freight costs by 2–6, wholesale and farm-gate by 1–3, live shelf prices move daily, and the official CPI — a survey of the shelf published two weeks after month end — arrives last (shelter takes about a year). The Nowflation gauge (2.16%) reads the middle of the pipe in real time; official CPI (3.4%) reads the bottom. When the top of this page cools before the bottom, that is the gap — and the forecast.
Lead times are the empirical pass-through lags the Nowflation forecast model uses. Sources: FMP futures, FRED, EIA, USDA, Zillow, AAA, Manheim, the NY Fed and Freightos — free and re-checkable, each series downloadable as CSV.
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