The gap is -1.24pp. It is not an error — it is the method. The BLS measures shelter with a 12-14 month survey lag; Nowflation prices new leases and current mortgage costs today. Our gauge uses daily market prices; the CPI is a monthly survey published two weeks late. The gauge correlates 0.9269 with official CPI 2 months ahead — the gauge leads, the official number follows.
| Component | Ours YoY | BLS YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Shelter: Rent | +1.2% | +2.9% |
| Motor Fuel | +31.2% | +31.2% |
| Electricity | +5.7% | +4.2% |
| Utility Gas | -22.0% | +4.3% |
Both numbers are true; they answer different questions. Every source is public, the methodology is versioned, and every forecast is graded after each print.
Explore: dashboard · methodology · status · heatcheck · my inflation · vs bls · jobs · housing · farm to shelf · data · scoreboard · gap · gdp · oil · pipeline · natgas · reserves · stockpiles · about · privacy · contact · analysis · expectations · activity · labor · conditions · income · trade · surveys · today · forecast · compare · embeds · money · fiscal · stress · rates · affordability · matrix · indicators · mortgage · calculator · cart · states · counters · recession · commodities · energy · countries · macro · calendar · liquidity · ratios · housing market · revisions · century · nowflation difference · nowflation terms · nowflation how to · supercore · credit · growth · real wages · jobs preview · fx · metros · prediction markets · eggs · gas · coffee · ground beef · electricity · milk · bread · bacon · chicken · chocolate · butter · cheese · flour · rice · potatoes · tomatoes · bananas · oranges · all 1,435 series