The "hard data" — dollars actually spent and units actually produced, as opposed to survey sentiment. Retail sales, industrial production, real retail volumes, durable-goods orders and real disposable income, each charted with history and YoY momentum. When the hard data and the surveys disagree, the hard data usually wins.
Hot activity plus hot prices is demand-driven inflation the Fed fights; cooling activity with sticky prices is the stagflation corner. These series feed the economy heat check and sit next to the inflation gauge for exactly that read.
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