What real-money markets price for the next Fed decision, inflation prints, recession timing and elections — from Kalshi's regulated exchanges. Prediction markets aggregate dispersed information ruthlessly; they are often the fastest consensus available.
This site treats market odds as a benchmark, never a model input: Kalshi's implied CPI forecast appears on the scoreboard next to ours and gets graded like everyone else. On Fed decisions, the market's meeting-by-meeting odds are the cleanest read of what's priced in.
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