What markets and households think inflation will be — 5- and 10-year breakevens from TIPS, the 5y5y forward the Fed watches, the Cleveland Fed's model, and the Michigan consumer survey. Expectations are self-fulfilling: workers bargain and firms price on them, which is why the Fed treats this page's series as its anchor gauge.
The gap between market-priced and survey expectations is itself a signal — households anchor on grocery and gas prices, markets on the Fed's credibility. When both drift up together, the anchor is slipping.
Explore: dashboard · methodology · status · heatcheck · my inflation · vs bls · jobs · housing · farm to shelf · data · scoreboard · gap · gdp · oil · pipeline · natgas · reserves · stockpiles · about · privacy · contact · analysis · expectations · activity · labor · conditions · income · trade · surveys · today · forecast · compare · embeds · money · fiscal · stress · rates · affordability · matrix · indicators · mortgage · calculator · cart · states · counters · recession · commodities · energy · countries · macro · calendar · liquidity · ratios · housing market · revisions · century · nowflation difference · nowflation terms · nowflation how to · supercore · credit · growth · real wages · jobs preview · fx · metros · prediction markets · eggs · gas · coffee · ground beef · electricity · milk · bread · bacon · chicken · chocolate · butter · cheese · flour · rice · potatoes · tomatoes · bananas · oranges · all 1,435 series