Beneath the headline unemployment rate — job openings, quits and hires from JOLTS, weekly claims, participation, U-6 underemployment and payroll momentum. The internals turn before the headline does: quits fall and openings shrink quarters before unemployment rises.
For inflation, the labor market is the wage-setting machine: tight internals feed wage growth that feeds services prices — the stickiest part of the CPI. The Sahm-rule recession trigger on the recession page is built from this page's unemployment series.
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