Nowflation Gauge holds at 3.24% YoY as Education & Communication drives daily gains, outpacing a Medical Care pullback.

The Daily Brief for September 11, 2026, as the data stood that morning · Cooling gap, sticky core. Nowflation Gauge 3.24% year over year on 2026-09-11 — −0.011pp on the day, +0.064pp on the week, +0.099pp on the month; seasonally adjusted pace 2.12% annualized over three months and 7.23% over one. Official CPI 3.4% (August 2026, released 2026-09-11); gap −0.16pp. About 44% of the basket is priced from live sources; the rest holds the latest BLS subindex as measured.

What moved

Gauge 3.24% YoY, −0.011pp on the day and +0.064pp on the week; seasonally adjusted pace 2.12% annualized over three months, 7.23% over one.
Education & Comm +1.61% on the day (+1.61% on the week, 2.15% YoY) — +9.39bps to the headline.
Gauge runs −0.16pp versus the August 2026 print of 3.4%; September 2026 CPI lands in 33 days — Nowflation Forecast 3.48% vs Street 3.7%, Cleveland Fed 3.43%.

The wire

The Nowflation Gauge sits at 3.24% YoY, down 0.011pp on the day but up 0.064pp on the week and 0.099pp on the month. Education & Communication led daily moves, up 1.61% and adding 9.39bps, followed by Shelter: Owned (+0.19%, 4.87bps) and Lodging Away From Home (+2.36%, 3.04bps). Medical Care fell 0.24%, shaving 2.06bps. The gauge trades 0.16pp below the official August CPI print of 3.4%, suggesting the September release should undershoot the Street's 3.70% consensus and land nearer the 3.27% Nowflation Forecast. Pump prices at $4.295/gal point lower, with the two-week forward at $4.225, a 7-cent drawdown.

The print ahead — September 2026 CPI, Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET (in 33 days)

Forecaster	Headline CPI YoY call
Nowflation Forecast (pre-registered ensemble)	3.48%
Nowflation model (in-house)	3.27%
Street consensus	3.7%
Cleveland Fed nowcast	3.43%
Kalshi — ladder-implied mean (our calculation; market)	3.72%
Prior print	3.4%

Our call sits −0.22pp versus the Street; the Gauge runs −0.16pp versus the August 2026 print of 3.4% that this release replaces. The forecast is a separate product from the Gauge — the Gauge measures today's prices; the forecast is the pre-registered call for what the BLS will print, graded after every release (September 2026 preview and grading).

Shelter, fuel, Truflation, jobs

Shelter: all-tenant rent index 2.09% YoY (+0.17% month over month), the reading the Gauge uses as measured; owned shelter 3.08% YoY; official rent 2.75% and owners' equivalent rent 3.08% (2026-08, BLS).
Fuel: pump price $4.295 (AAA daily, 2026-09-11), +14.8¢ on the week; RBOB implies $4.225 in two weeks (−7.0¢).
Truflation: 2.28% (2026-09-11); the Gauge is +0.96pp against it and Truflation is −1.12pp against the official print — a different construction, reconciled on the Nowflation vs Truflation page.
Jobs: September 2026 payrolls land October 2, 2026 (21 days): Nowflation model +102K vs Street +120K.

Method

The Nowflation Gauge is a measurement of today’s prices — live market sources for the components that have them (all-tenant rents measured from this month’s new leases, pump prices, used-vehicle auctions) and the latest BLS subindex, held as measured, for the rest. It is never a forecast. The print-day call is a separate product: the Nowflation Forecast is the pre-registered ensemble for the next CPI release (locked the evening before, graded after); the in-house model is shown alongside it. The wire paragraph is written by Claude from the day’s engine figures only (model alias in each record; a deterministic template when the API is unavailable). The “what moved” bullets are computed, not written. recomputed 8:40 AM & 6 PM ET · published 9 AM ET · 8:45 AM ET on print days. Methodology · every input, exposed · calendar feed, RSS and email.

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