Nowflation Gauge steady at 1.82% YoY as Motor Fuel drags -0.05% daily despite a 24% annual surge.

The Daily Brief for July 11, 2026, as the data stood that morning · Fuel-led disinflation. Nowflation Gauge 2.99% year over year on 2026-07-11 — −0.002pp on the day, +0.069pp on the week, −0.328pp on the month; seasonally adjusted pace 0.75% annualized over three months and −2.54% over one. Official CPI 4.2% (May 2026, released 2026-06-10); gap −1.21pp. About 43% of the basket is priced from live sources; the rest holds the latest BLS subindex as measured.

What moved

Gauge 2.99% YoY, −0.002pp on the day and +0.069pp on the week; seasonally adjusted pace 0.75% annualized over three months, −2.54% over one.
Motor Fuel −0.05% on the day (+1.89% on the week, 24.00% YoY) — −0.16bps to the headline.
Gauge runs −1.21pp versus the May 2026 print of 4.2%; June 2026 CPI lands in 3 days — Nowflation Forecast 3.94% vs Street 3.8%, Cleveland Fed 3.92%.

The wire

Nowflation Gauge holds at 1.82% YoY, essentially flat on the day (-0.002pp) but up 0.101pp on the week, down 0.608pp on the month. Motor Fuel remains the swing factor: daily -0.05%, weekly +1.89%, monthly -6.54%, still up 24% YoY, shaving 0.15bps off the daily print. Shelter: Owned adds 2.72% YoY, Rent up just 0.69%. The gauge sits 2.38pp below the official 2026-05 CPI print of 4.2% (prior 3.8%, core 2.9%), the highest annual rate since April 2023, implying downside risk to the Nowflation's 4.025% Nowflation Forecast for June against a 3.9% Street consensus. Pump prices at $3.882 point to a 2-week forward of $3.956, up 7.4 cents.

As written on 2026-07-11, under the gauge construction in force that day; the readings above reflect the current construction (v1.3, since September 2, 2026), so the levels differ.

The print ahead — June 2026 CPI, Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET (printed 3.5%)

Forecaster	Headline CPI YoY call
Nowflation Forecast (pre-registered ensemble)	3.94%
Nowflation model (in-house)	4.03%
Street consensus	3.8%
Cleveland Fed nowcast	3.92%
Kalshi market-implied	3.80%
Prior print	4.2%

Our call sits +0.14pp versus the Street; the Gauge runs −1.21pp versus the May 2026 print of 4.2% that this release replaces. Graded: the call missed by +0.44pp. The forecast is a separate product from the Gauge — the Gauge measures today's prices; the forecast is the pre-registered call for what the BLS will print, graded after every release (June 2026 preview and grading).

Shelter, fuel, Truflation, jobs

Shelter: all-tenant rent index 1.71% YoY (+0.14% month over month), the reading the Gauge uses as measured; owned shelter 3.32% YoY; official rent 2.86% and owners' equivalent rent 3.23% (2026-07, BLS).
Fuel: pump price $3.882 (AAA daily, 2026-07-11), +7.2¢ on the week; RBOB implies $3.956 in two weeks (+7.4¢).
Truflation: 1.88% (2026-07-11); the Gauge is +1.10pp against it and Truflation is −2.32pp against the official print — a different construction, reconciled on the Nowflation vs Truflation page.
Jobs: July 2026 payrolls land August 7, 2026 (27 days): Nowflation model +148K vs Street +80K; printed −23K.

Method

The Nowflation Gauge is a measurement of today’s prices — live market sources for the components that have them (all-tenant rents measured from this month’s new leases, pump prices, used-vehicle auctions) and the latest BLS subindex, held as measured, for the rest. It is never a forecast. The print-day call is a separate product: the Nowflation Forecast is the pre-registered ensemble for the next CPI release (locked the evening before, graded after); the in-house model is shown alongside it. The wire paragraph is written by Claude from the day’s engine figures only (model alias in each record; a deterministic template when the API is unavailable). The “what moved” bullets are computed, not written. recomputed 8:40 AM & 6 PM ET · published 9 AM ET · 8:45 AM ET on print days. Methodology · every input, exposed · calendar feed, RSS and email.

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