Nowflation Gauge ticks up to 1.78% YoY, +0.045pp on the day, as motor fuel jumps 1.32% intraday.

The Daily Brief for July 9, 2026, as the data stood that morning · Fuel-led uptick. Nowflation Gauge 2.96% year over year on 2026-07-09 — +0.045pp on the day, +0.010pp on the week, −0.291pp on the month; seasonally adjusted pace 0.90% annualized over three months and −1.13% over one. Official CPI 4.2% (May 2026, released 2026-06-10); gap −1.25pp. About 43% of the basket is priced from live sources; the rest holds the latest BLS subindex as measured.

What moved

Gauge 2.96% YoY, +0.045pp on the day and +0.010pp on the week; seasonally adjusted pace 0.90% annualized over three months, −1.13% over one.
Motor Fuel +1.32% on the day (+0.21% on the week, 22.85% YoY) — +3.95bps to the headline.
Gauge runs −1.25pp versus the May 2026 print of 4.2%; June 2026 CPI lands in 5 days — Nowflation Forecast 3.94% vs Street 3.8%, Cleveland Fed 3.92%.

The wire

The Nowflation Gauge stands at 1.78% YoY, rising 0.045pp day-on-day and 0.043pp week-on-week, though still down 0.641pp on the month; cumulative gains since January 2018 reach 33.9%. Motor Fuel leads today's move, up 1.32% dod and 22.85% YoY, contributing 3.95bps, even after a -7.41% monthly pullback. Shelter Owned (+2.72% YoY) and Rent (+0.69% YoY) remain flat intraday, with Used Vehicles still down 2.04% YoY. The gauge sits 2.42pp below the official May print of 4.2% YoY CPI (prior 3.8%), a gap consistent with the Nowflation Forecast's 4.025% estimate for June, above the 3.9% Street consensus. Forward fuel prices point to 3.863 per gallon in two weeks, up 1.7 cents from today's 3.846 pump level.

As written on 2026-07-09, under the gauge construction in force that day; the readings above reflect the current construction (v1.3, since September 2, 2026), so the levels differ.

The print ahead — June 2026 CPI, Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET (printed 3.5%)

Forecaster	Headline CPI YoY call
Nowflation Forecast (pre-registered ensemble)	3.94%
Nowflation model (in-house)	4.03%
Street consensus	3.8%
Cleveland Fed nowcast	3.92%
Kalshi market-implied	3.79%
Prior print	4.2%

Our call sits +0.14pp versus the Street; the Gauge runs −1.25pp versus the May 2026 print of 4.2% that this release replaces. Graded: the call missed by +0.44pp. The forecast is a separate product from the Gauge — the Gauge measures today's prices; the forecast is the pre-registered call for what the BLS will print, graded after every release (June 2026 preview and grading).

Shelter, fuel, Truflation, jobs

Shelter: all-tenant rent index 1.71% YoY (+0.14% month over month), the reading the Gauge uses as measured; owned shelter 3.32% YoY; official rent 2.86% and owners' equivalent rent 3.23% (2026-07, BLS).
Fuel: pump price $3.846 (AAA daily, 2026-07-09), +0.8¢ on the week; RBOB implies $3.877 in two weeks (+3.1¢).
Truflation: 1.82% (2026-07-09); the Gauge is +1.13pp against it and Truflation is −2.38pp against the official print — a different construction, reconciled on the Nowflation vs Truflation page.
Jobs: July 2026 payrolls land August 7, 2026 (29 days): Nowflation model +75K vs Street +80K; printed −23K.

Method

The Nowflation Gauge is a measurement of today’s prices — live market sources for the components that have them (all-tenant rents measured from this month’s new leases, pump prices, used-vehicle auctions) and the latest BLS subindex, held as measured, for the rest. It is never a forecast. The print-day call is a separate product: the Nowflation Forecast is the pre-registered ensemble for the next CPI release (locked the evening before, graded after); the in-house model is shown alongside it. The wire paragraph is written by Claude from the day’s engine figures only (model alias in each record; a deterministic template when the API is unavailable). The “what moved” bullets are computed, not written. recomputed 8:40 AM & 6 PM ET · published 9 AM ET · 8:45 AM ET on print days. Methodology · every input, exposed · calendar feed, RSS and email.

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