Official rent inflation is 2.86% year over year (CPI rent of primary residence, July 2026) and owners' equivalent rent 3.23%; together they are about a third of the CPI. Nowflation's all-tenant rent index — this month's new-lease rents (Zillow, Apartment List) averaged over every lease still in force, what the renting population actually pays — reads 2.09%, with raw new-lease rents at 1.65%. The BLS reprices each unit in its rent panel only every six months, so the official line blends leases signed up to a year ago; the market line turns first, and the gap between them is the single biggest reason the Nowflation Gauge and the CPI differ.
| Measure | YoY | Level | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nowflation all-tenant rent index | 2.09% | — | September 8, 2026 | Nowflation (Zillow ZORI, Apartment List) |
| CPI rent of primary residence (SA) | +2.9% | 448.54 | July 2026 | FRED |
| CPI owners' equivalent rent (SA) | +3.2% | 442.89 | July 2026 | FRED |
| Zillow Observed Rent Index (US, $/mo) | +2.4% | 1,962.19 | July 2026 | Zillow Research |
| Apartment List national rent estimate ($/mo) | -0.8% | 1,390 | August 2026 | Apartment List |
| BLS new-tenant rent index (R-CPI-NTR, 4-quarter %) | -29.4% | 1.2 | July 2025 | Rent trackers |
| BLS all-tenant regressed rent (R-CPI-ATR, 4-quarter %) | -25.6% | 2.9 | July 2025 | Rent trackers |
Where it goes from here: the daily reading and every input are on the shelter category gauge; how the all-tenant index is built and how far it runs ahead of the official series is tested on the lead test; buy-vs-rent and the payment by metro are on the housing hub and metro pages; the official rent and OER series are downloadable from the series pages.
The official CPI rent of primary residence index is up 2.86% year over year for July 2026, and owners' equivalent rent (OER) 3.23%. Nowflation's all-tenant rent index — what the renting population pays this month, measured from new-lease rents averaged over every lease in force — reads 2.09%, with raw new-lease rents at 1.65%.
The BLS reprices each unit in its rent panel only every six months, so the official rent index blends leases signed up to a year ago, and OER is imputed from that same panel. Market indexes (Zillow ZORI, Apartment List) price this month's new leases — the marginal tenant — which is why they turn a year or more before the CPI shelter line does.
New-lease rents (Zillow ZORI 80%, Apartment List 20%) averaged over the trailing 48 months with weights that decay at the lease turnover rate (about 5% a month), so it measures what every tenant pays rather than only the one signing this month. Used as measured in the Gauge; on the record it runs about 5 months ahead of the official rent index, a lead tested on the lead-test page rather than built into the number.
Zillow's Observed Rent Index puts the typical US asking rent at $1,962 a month for July 2026, +2.4% from a year earlier. The principal-and-interest payment on the typical home at 6.89% is $1,945, so buying costs 0.9% less per month than renting before taxes, insurance and upkeep.
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