The September 2025 Consumer Price Index printed 3.0% year over year on October 24, 2025 (prior 2.9%, Street consensus 3.1%, surprise −0.10pp). Closest on the headline: Cleveland Fed. No Nowflation forecast was sealed before this release. Core CPI 3.0% (consensus 3.1%, prior 3.1%; closest Cleveland Fed). Headline MoM 0.3% vs 0.4% expected.
| Forecaster | Call | Printed | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Fed (closest) | 2.99% | 3.0% | −0.012pp |
| Street consensus | 3.1% | 3.0% | +0.100pp |
| Forecaster | Call | Printed | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Fed (closest) | 2.95% | 3.0% | −0.046pp |
| Street consensus | 3.1% | 3.0% | +0.100pp |
| Forecaster | Call | Printed | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Fed (closest) | 0.38% | 0.3% | +0.076pp |
| Street consensus | 0.4% | 0.3% | +0.100pp |
| Forecaster | Call | Printed | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Fed (closest) | 0.26% | 0.2% | +0.056pp |
| Street consensus | 0.3% | 0.2% | +0.100pp |
no pre-registration receipt for this print (receipts began June 2026) — values are the scoreboard rows frozen at grading time. Receipts on the record.
The Gauge read 2.96% on the eve of the print and 2.91% the day after (−0.050pp), its gap to the printed number moving from −0.04pp to −0.09pp. The Gauge is a measurement of today, not a call on the print: on release day the components that hold an official subindex step to the new print while the live components keep moving.
Before the print: every call as it stands on the tape, sealed into the receipt the evening before release (SHA-256 of the receipt JSON with its sha256 field removed). After the print: the scoreboard rows frozen at grading time — later revisions by any source never touch them. Graded against the BLS first release (YoY on the NSA index, MoM seasonally adjusted, one decimal). Signed error = forecast − actual.
Scoreboard · September 2025 CPI preview, the preview before the print · compare the forecasters · print day, live · dashboard.
Released Friday, October 24, 2025 at 8:30 AM ET. Graded below.
No Nowflation call was sealed before this release.
| Forecaster | Call | Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Fed (closest) | 2.99% | −0.01pp |
| Street consensus | 3.1% | +0.10pp |
September 2025 CPI printed 3.0% YoY on October 24, 2025 (−0.10pp vs consensus). Closest: Cleveland Fed. Source: BLS first release.
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