September 2025 CPI: 3% — who called it
The September 2025 CPI print landed at 3% year over year. Closest call on the headline: Cleveland Fed nowcast. Every forecaster below was on the record before the release and is graded against the BLS first print; signed error = forecast minus actual, so a positive number ran hot. These are the values frozen at grading time — later revisions by any source never touch them.
Headline CPI YoY: actual 3.0%
| Forecaster | Call | Signed error |
|---|
| Cleveland Fed nowcast (closest) | 2.99% | -0.012pp |
| Street consensus | 3.10% | +0.100pp |
Core CPI YoY: actual 3.0%
| Forecaster | Call | Signed error |
|---|
| Cleveland Fed nowcast (closest) | 2.95% | -0.046pp |
| Street consensus | 3.10% | +0.100pp |
Headline CPI MoM: actual 0.3%
| Forecaster | Call | Signed error |
|---|
| Cleveland Fed nowcast (closest) | 0.38% | +0.076pp |
| Street consensus | 0.40% | +0.100pp |
Core CPI MoM: actual 0.2%
| Forecaster | Call | Signed error |
|---|
| Cleveland Fed nowcast (closest) | 0.26% | +0.056pp |
| Street consensus | 0.30% | +0.100pp |
The league table — headline CPI YoY, every graded print
| Forecaster | Live prints | Live MAE | Backtest prints | Backtest MAE | Combined MAE |
|---|
| Street Consensus | 43 | 0.088pp | — | — | 0.088pp (43) |
| Cleveland Fed | 43 | 0.106pp | — | — | 0.106pp (43) |
| Kalshi Market | 2 | 0.181pp | — | — | 0.181pp (2) |
| Nowflation Forecast | 2 | 0.208pp | — | — | 0.208pp (2) |
| Nowflation Model | 2 | 0.292pp | 39 | 0.085pp | 0.095pp (41) |
Live = scoreboard rows frozen at grading time, ranked by live MAE. Backtest = the Nowflation Model's vintage-true walk-forward before its first live print (June 2026). Lower MAE = closer calls.
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