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FOMC decision (September 16, 2026): Countdown, What to Watch

Countdown

The FOMC decision is released September 16, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET (the Fed). The countdown runs live on this page; this section grades itself after the release.

What to watch

Markets: Markets disagree by 10.0 points: Kalshi prices hike 25bps at 77.5%, Polymarket at 87.5%. Real-money prices, labeled by market, never a model input.
Effective fed funds rate: 3.63% going in (EFFR, last reading before the meeting).
The Gauge today: 3.24% YoY as of 2026-09-14, against 3.4% official CPI (August 2026).
Nowflation: no Fed call. The two markets are shown side by side with their spread; the decision is graded from the effective rate after the meeting.

The Nowflation call

Nowflation makes no FOMC call. The two markets are shown side by side with their spread; the decision is graded from the effective rate after the meeting.

Competing forecasts

Forecaster	Probability	Source
Kalshi · Hike 25bps	77.5%	Kalshi, real-money prediction market
Polymarket · 25 bps increase	87.5%	Polymarket, real-money prediction market
Kalshi · Fed maintains rate	21.1%	Kalshi, real-money prediction market
Polymarket · No change	12.5%	Polymarket, real-money prediction market
Kalshi · Hike >25bps	1.5%	Kalshi, real-money prediction market
Polymarket · 50+ bps increase	0.9%	Polymarket, real-money prediction market

Grading

This section fills in automatically after the release (September 16, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET): the printed number from the Fed, every forecaster's miss, and the closest call.