FOMC decision, September 16, 2026: Hike 25bps — Graded

Countdown

Released Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET. Graded below.

What to watch

• Markets: On September 15, 2026, the last daily read before the meeting, Kalshi priced hike 25bps at 87.4%. Real-money prices, labeled by market, never a model input.
• Fed funds target range: 3.50%–3.75% (the range set at the previous meeting) going in.
• Effective fed funds rate: 3.63% on September 15, 2026 (EFFR, the last reading before the meeting).
• Nowflation: no Fed call. The markets are shown with their dates; the decision is graded from the effective rate after the meeting.

The Nowflation call

Nowflation makes no FOMC call. The markets are shown with their dates; the decision is graded from the effective rate after the meeting.

Competing forecasts

Grading

Decision: Hike 25bps (EFFR 3.63% on September 15, 2026 → 3.88% on September 17, 2026; target range 3.75%–4.00%). Source: the effective fed funds rate (EFFR) before vs after the meeting, in 25bp steps.

Related: Fed watch · Prediction markets · Rates and credit · Release calendar