Nowflation › Release calendar › September 2025 PCE

September 2025 PCE: 2.8% — Graded

Countdown

Released Friday, December 5, 2025 at 8:30 AM ET. Graded below.

What to watch

Prior: headline PCE 2.7% YoY (August 2025).
Core PCE prior: 2.9% YoY, the trend measure the Fed watches most closely (its 2% goal is on headline PCE).
Street consensus: 2.8% headline YoY (FMP economic calendar estimate).
Nowflation: no PCE nowcast is on record for September 2025. PCE weights shelter lower and medical care higher than CPI; in September 2025 headline PCE ran 2.8% against CPI's 3.0%, below it.

The Nowflation call

No PCE nowcast is on record for September 2025. PCE weights shelter lower and medical care higher than CPI; in September 2025 headline PCE ran 2.8% against CPI's 3.0%, below it.

Competing forecasts

Forecaster	Call	Miss
Street consensus (closest)	2.8%	0.00pp
Prior month (naive)	2.7%	−0.10pp

Grading

September 2025 PCE printed 2.8% YoY on December 5, 2025, core 2.8% (prior 2.7%). Source: BEA, from series PCEPI (YoY from index levels).