Nowflation › Release calendar › October 2025 PCE

October 2025 PCE: 2.6% — Graded

Countdown

Released Thursday, January 22, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Graded below.

What to watch

Prior: headline PCE 2.8% YoY (September 2025).
Core PCE prior: 2.8% YoY, the trend measure the Fed watches most closely (its 2% goal is on headline PCE).
Street consensus: 2.7% headline YoY (FMP economic calendar estimate).
Nowflation: no PCE nowcast is on record for October 2025. PCE weights shelter lower and medical care higher than CPI; in August 2026 headline PCE ran 3.4% against CPI's 3.4%, level with it.

The Nowflation call

No PCE nowcast is on record for October 2025. PCE weights shelter lower and medical care higher than CPI; in August 2026 headline PCE ran 3.4% against CPI's 3.4%, level with it.

Competing forecasts

Forecaster	Call	Miss
Street consensus (closest)	2.7%	+0.10pp
Prior month (naive)	2.8%	+0.20pp

Grading

October 2025 PCE printed 2.6% YoY on January 22, 2026, core 2.7% (prior 2.8%). Source: BEA, from series PCEPI (YoY from index levels).