Nowflation › Release calendar › November 2025 PCE

November 2025 PCE: 2.7% — Graded

Countdown

Released Thursday, January 22, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Graded below.

What to watch

Prior: headline PCE 2.7% YoY (October 2025).
Core PCE prior: 2.7% YoY, the trend measure the Fed watches most closely (its 2% goal is on headline PCE).
Street consensus: 2.8% headline YoY (FMP economic calendar estimate).
Nowflation: no PCE nowcast is on record for November 2025. PCE weights shelter lower and medical care higher than CPI; in November 2025 headline PCE ran 2.7% against CPI's 2.7%, level with it.

The Nowflation call

No PCE nowcast is on record for November 2025. PCE weights shelter lower and medical care higher than CPI; in November 2025 headline PCE ran 2.7% against CPI's 2.7%, level with it.

Competing forecasts

Forecaster	Call	Miss
Street consensus	2.8%	+0.10pp
Prior month (naive) (closest)	2.7%	0.00pp

Grading

November 2025 PCE printed 2.7% YoY on January 22, 2026, core 2.7% (prior 2.7%). Source: BEA, from series PCEPI (YoY from index levels).