Nowflation › Release calendar › May 2026 PCE

May 2026 PCE: 3.8% — Graded

Countdown

Released Thursday, June 25, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Graded below.

What to watch

Prior: headline PCE 3.8% YoY (April 2026).
Core PCE prior: 3.1% YoY, the trend measure the Fed watches most closely (its 2% goal is on headline PCE).
Street consensus: 4.1% headline YoY (FMP economic calendar estimate).
Nowflation: no PCE nowcast is on record for May 2026. PCE weights shelter lower and medical care higher than CPI; in May 2026 headline PCE ran 3.8% against CPI's 4.2%, below it.

The Nowflation call

No PCE nowcast is on record for May 2026. PCE weights shelter lower and medical care higher than CPI; in May 2026 headline PCE ran 3.8% against CPI's 4.2%, below it.

Competing forecasts

Forecaster	Call	Miss
Street consensus	4.1%	+0.30pp
Prior month (naive) (closest)	3.8%	0.00pp

Grading

May 2026 PCE printed 3.8% YoY on June 25, 2026, core 3.2% (prior 3.8%). Source: BEA, from series PCEPI (YoY from index levels).