Nowflation › Release calendar › March 2026 PCE

March 2026 PCE: 3.4% — Graded

Countdown

Released Thursday, April 30, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Graded below.

What to watch

Prior: headline PCE 2.8% YoY (February 2026).
Core PCE prior: 2.8% YoY, the trend measure the Fed watches most closely (its 2% goal is on headline PCE).
Street consensus: 3.5% headline YoY (FMP economic calendar estimate).
Nowflation: no PCE nowcast is on record for March 2026. PCE weights shelter lower and medical care higher than CPI; in March 2026 headline PCE ran 3.4% against CPI's 3.3%, above it.

The Nowflation call

No PCE nowcast is on record for March 2026. PCE weights shelter lower and medical care higher than CPI; in March 2026 headline PCE ran 3.4% against CPI's 3.3%, above it.

Competing forecasts

Forecaster	Call	Miss
Street consensus (closest)	3.5%	+0.10pp
Prior month (naive)	2.8%	−0.60pp

Grading

March 2026 PCE printed 3.4% YoY on April 30, 2026, core 3.1% (prior 2.8%). Source: BEA, from series PCEPI (YoY from index levels).