June 2026 PCE: 3.5% — Graded, Nowflation 3.97%

Countdown

Released Thursday, July 30, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Graded below.

Prior: headline PCE 4.1% YoY (May 2026).
Core PCE prior: 3.2% YoY, the trend measure the Fed watches most closely (its 2% goal is on headline PCE).
Street consensus: 3.7% headline YoY (FMP economic calendar estimate).
Nowflation: the in-house PCE nowcast (as of July 29, 2026) bridges the CPI component nowcasts to PCE weights; it is graded below after the release. PCE weights shelter lower and medical care higher than CPI; in June 2026 headline PCE ran 3.5% against CPI's 3.5%, level with it.

3.97% headline PCE YoY for June 2026 (Nowflation's in-house PCE nowcast, last before the release, July 29, 2026; not a sealed receipt).

Forecaster	Call	Miss
Street consensus (closest)	3.7%	+0.20pp
Prior month (naive)	4.1%	+0.60pp

June 2026 PCE printed 3.5% YoY on July 30, 2026, core 3.0% (prior 4.1%). Source: BEA, from series PCEPI (YoY from index levels).

Nowflation 3.97% vs printed 3.5%: miss +0.47pp.