July 2026 PCE: 3.7% — Graded

Countdown

Released by BEA (the release date is not on the calendar). Graded below.

What to watch

• Prior: headline PCE 3.7% YoY (June 2026).
• Core PCE prior: 3.3% YoY, the Fed's preferred measure.
• Nowflation: no PCE call. The Gauge and the Forecast are CPI-basis; PCE weights shelter lower and medical care higher, so it usually prints below CPI.

The Nowflation call

Nowflation makes no PCE call. The Gauge and the Forecast are CPI-basis; PCE weights shelter lower and medical care higher, so it usually prints below CPI.

Competing forecasts

Grading

July 2026 PCE printed 3.7% YoY, core 3.3% (prior 3.7%). Source: BEA, from series PCEPI (YoY from index levels).

Related: Fed watch · Inflation today · Series PCEPI · Release calendar