July 2026 PCE: 3.4% — Graded, Nowflation 3.81%

Countdown

Released Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Graded below.

Prior: headline PCE 3.7% YoY (June 2026).
Core PCE prior: 3.0% YoY, the trend measure the Fed watches most closely (its 2% goal is on headline PCE).
Street consensus: 3.6% headline YoY (FMP economic calendar estimate).
Nowflation: the in-house PCE nowcast (as of August 25, 2026) bridges the CPI component nowcasts to PCE weights; it is graded below after the release. PCE weights shelter lower and medical care higher than CPI; in July 2026 headline PCE ran 3.4% against CPI's 3.4%, level with it.

3.81% headline PCE YoY for July 2026 (Nowflation's in-house PCE nowcast, last before the release, August 25, 2026; not a sealed receipt).

Forecaster	Call	Miss
Street consensus (closest)	3.6%	+0.20pp
Prior month (naive)	3.7%	+0.30pp

July 2026 PCE printed 3.4% YoY on August 26, 2026, core 3.0% (prior 3.7%). Source: BEA, from series PCEPI (YoY from index levels).

Nowflation 3.81% vs printed 3.4%: miss +0.41pp.