Nowflation › Release calendar › July 2025 PCE

July 2025 PCE: 2.6% — Graded

Countdown

Released Friday, August 29, 2025 at 8:30 AM ET. Graded below.

What to watch

Prior: headline PCE 2.6% YoY (June 2025).
Core PCE prior: 2.8% YoY, the trend measure the Fed watches most closely (its 2% goal is on headline PCE).
Street consensus: 2.6% headline YoY (FMP economic calendar estimate).
Nowflation: no PCE nowcast is on record for July 2025. PCE weights shelter lower and medical care higher than CPI; in July 2025 headline PCE ran 2.6% against CPI's 2.7%, below it.

The Nowflation call

No PCE nowcast is on record for July 2025. PCE weights shelter lower and medical care higher than CPI; in July 2025 headline PCE ran 2.6% against CPI's 2.7%, below it.

Competing forecasts

Forecaster	Call	Miss
Street consensus (closest)	2.6%	0.00pp
Prior month (naive) (closest)	2.6%	0.00pp

Grading

July 2025 PCE printed 2.6% YoY on August 29, 2025, core 2.8% (prior 2.6%). Source: BEA, from series PCEPI (YoY from index levels).