Nowflation › Release calendar › January 2026 PCE

January 2026 PCE: 2.7% — Graded

Countdown

Released Friday, March 13, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Graded below.

What to watch

Prior: headline PCE 2.9% YoY (December 2025).
Core PCE prior: 2.9% YoY, the trend measure the Fed watches most closely (its 2% goal is on headline PCE).
Street consensus: 2.9% headline YoY (FMP economic calendar estimate).
Nowflation: no PCE nowcast is on record for January 2026. PCE weights shelter lower and medical care higher than CPI; in January 2026 headline PCE ran 2.7% against CPI's 2.4%, above it.

The Nowflation call

No PCE nowcast is on record for January 2026. PCE weights shelter lower and medical care higher than CPI; in January 2026 headline PCE ran 2.7% against CPI's 2.4%, above it.

Competing forecasts

Forecaster	Call	Miss
Street consensus (closest)	2.9%	+0.20pp
Prior month (naive) (closest)	2.9%	+0.20pp

Grading

January 2026 PCE printed 2.7% YoY on March 13, 2026, core 3.0% (prior 2.9%). Source: BEA, from series PCEPI (YoY from index levels).