Nowflation › Release calendar › September 2026 jobs report

September 2026 jobs report: +29K — Graded, Nowflation +124K

Countdown

Released Friday, October 2, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Graded below.

What to watch

Prior: payrolls +133K in August 2026.
Street consensus: +90K payrolls (FMP economic calendar estimate).
Unemployment rate: 4.1% in August 2026.
Nowflation: the in-house payroll nowcast (as of October 1, 2026) is graded below after the report. Watch average hourly earnings against the Gauge: real wages are the inflation story in this report.

The Nowflation call

+124K nonfarm payrolls for September 2026 (Nowflation's in-house payroll nowcast, last before the release, October 1, 2026; not a sealed receipt).

Competing forecasts

Forecaster	Call	Miss
Street consensus (closest)	+90K	+61K
Prior month (naive)	+133K	+104K

Grading

September 2026 payrolls +29K (reported October 2, 2026), unemployment 4.2% (prior +133K). Source: BLS, from series PAYEMS (monthly change) and UNRATE.

Nowflation +124K vs printed +29K: miss +95K.