Nowflation › Release calendar › September 2025 jobs report

September 2025 jobs report: +76K — Graded

Countdown

Released Thursday, November 20, 2025 at 8:30 AM ET. Graded below.

What to watch

Prior: payrolls −4K in August 2025.
Street consensus: +50K payrolls (FMP economic calendar estimate).
Unemployment rate: 4.3% in August 2025.
Nowflation: no payroll nowcast is on record for September 2025. Watch average hourly earnings against the Gauge: real wages are the inflation story in this report.

The Nowflation call

No payroll nowcast is on record for September 2025. Watch average hourly earnings against the Gauge: real wages are the inflation story in this report.

Competing forecasts

Forecaster	Call	Miss
Street consensus (closest)	+50K	−26K
Prior month (naive)	−4K	−80K

Grading

September 2025 payrolls +76K (reported November 20, 2025), unemployment 4.4% (prior −4K). Source: BLS, from series PAYEMS (monthly change) and UNRATE.