Nowflation › Release calendar › October 2025 jobs report

October 2025 jobs report: −140K — Graded

Countdown

Released Tuesday, December 16, 2025 at 8:30 AM ET. Graded below.

What to watch

  • Prior: payrolls +108K in September 2025.
  • Street consensus: +55K payrolls (FMP economic calendar estimate).
  • Unemployment rate: 4.4% in September 2025.
  • Nowflation: no payroll nowcast is on record for October 2025. Watch average hourly earnings against the Gauge: real wages are the inflation story in this report.

The Nowflation call

No payroll nowcast is on record for October 2025. Watch average hourly earnings against the Gauge: real wages are the inflation story in this report.

Competing forecasts

ForecasterCallMiss
Street consensus (closest)+55K+195K
Prior month (naive)+108K+248K

Grading

October 2025 payrolls −140K (reported December 16, 2025) (prior +108K). Source: BLS, from series PAYEMS (monthly change) and UNRATE.

Related: Jobs and wages · Real wages · Series PAYEMS · Release calendar