Nowflation › Release calendar › November 2025 jobs report

November 2025 jobs report: +41K — Graded

Countdown

Released Tuesday, December 16, 2025 at 8:30 AM ET. Graded below.

What to watch

Prior: payrolls −105K in October 2025.
Street consensus: +50K payrolls (FMP economic calendar estimate).
Nowflation: no payroll nowcast is on record for November 2025. Watch average hourly earnings against the Gauge: real wages are the inflation story in this report.

The Nowflation call

No payroll nowcast is on record for November 2025. Watch average hourly earnings against the Gauge: real wages are the inflation story in this report.

Competing forecasts

Forecaster	Call	Miss
Street consensus (closest)	+50K	+9K
Prior month (naive)	−105K	−146K

Grading

November 2025 payrolls +41K (reported December 16, 2025), unemployment 4.5% (prior −105K). Source: BLS, from series PAYEMS (monthly change) and UNRATE.